MARKET WIREBenzinga • 2d ago
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance shares are trading higher after the company announced it entered into a definitive agreement to sell the company's commercial real estate loan portfolio to Athene Holding.Why AIFC Stock surged +6.60% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$0.28 +6.60% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.28
AI Financial Corporation (AIFC) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 37/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $38.8M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.28 (+1.00%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.7% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AIFC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (37/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AIFC SCORES 37/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (41% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (22% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$0.44-20.5% Next Q
45
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$0.35-17.1% Next Q
42
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$0.29-3.4% Next Q
40
CurrentGrade D-$0.28-8.1% Hist 90D α
37
Trajectory: D (45) → D- (37)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AIFC Turnaround Squeeze
While AIFC currently carries a cautious 37/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($0.47) and Max Pain ($0.29) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $2.88.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AIFC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AIFC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 26, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why AIFC Stock surged +6.60% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
AI Financial Corporation (AIFC) surged +6.60% to $0.28, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($0.24 – $2.74). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-2% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($0.24 – $2.74) with RSI-14 at 23.7 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $0.28 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live AIFC Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AIFC)
- ✓Walkthrough of AIFC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
AIFC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -62.67%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-10-30O $0.27H $0.28L $0.24C $0.28VOL 770.3K
RES: $0.46SUP: $0.23SMA50: $0.47SMA200: $0.89
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
AIFC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +109.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AIFC today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AIFC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AIFC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AIFC)
Financials Rank #1017 of 1096
⚔️ DOMH vs AIFC Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AIFC vs. DOMH, COHN, PLUT, ANTA)
Industry: Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service (64 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, AI Financial Corporation (AIFC) ranks #1017 by composite RQD confidence (37/100, grade D-) and #1027 by equity capitalization ($38.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AIFC leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while COHN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. COHN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with AIFC at 37/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIFC
ACTIVE
AI Financial Corporation | D- | 37/100 | — | — | -1.6% | +6.60% | $38.8M | Benchmark Subject |
| DOMH Dominari Holdings Inc. | D | 45/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -3.31% | $44.1M | /domh-vs-aifc → |
| COHN Cohen & Company Inc. | C+ | 69/100 | — | — | 85.0% | +7.22% | $32.6M | /cohn-vs-aifc → |
| PLUT Plutus Financial Group Limited | E | 23/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -6.38% | $27.0M | /plut-vs-aifc → |
| ANTA Antalpha Platform Holding Company (Class A) | D | 50/100 | — | — | 10.6% | +4.45% | $66.2M | /anta-vs-aifc → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-27 • CIK 0000862861In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-27), AI Financial Corporation (AIFC) reported GAAP revenue of $24.8M (+109.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $11.9M ) , GAAP net income of -$344.5M, operating cash flow of -$7.2M, and free cash flow of -$7.2M (-503.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, AIFC closed FY2025 with $1.22B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-27 | $24.8M | -$344.5M | -$7.2M | -$7.2M | $1.22B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-28 | $11.9M | -$7.6M | $1.8M | $1.8M | $75.7M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-30 | $0 | -$7.8M | $1.5M | $1.5M | — | — |
3. AIFC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs AIFC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, AI Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: AIFC) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $0.28 (+6.60% 1D, market cap $38.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, AIFC ranks #1017 in composite RQD confidence.
How does AIFC compare to DOMH and COHN in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service), AIFC carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -1.6%. By comparison, DOMH (Dominari Holdings Inc.) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $44.1M) and COHN (Cohen & Company Inc.) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 85.0%, cap $32.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AIFC leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while COHN leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AIFC?
Per AIFC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-27, CIK 0000862861), AI Financial Corporation generated $24.8M in revenue (+109.0% YoY), -$344.5M in net income, and -$7.2M in free cash flow against $1.22B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is AIFC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
AIFC last traded at $0.28 (+6.60% on volume of 656,710 shares), positioning the stock -40.43% below its 50-day simple moving average ($0.47) and -68.54% below its 200-day simple moving average ($0.89). Across its 52-week range of $0.24 to $2.74, AIFC sits at the 1.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 23.7 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.32).
AIFC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is AIFC stock moving today?
Why AIFC Stock surged +6.60% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-2% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.