Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)
Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, AGM faces multiple-compression risk if 10.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($213.71) or 200D SMA ($188.84) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($202.11) toward Bear Floor ($157.65).
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) slipped -0.09% to $203.95, trading at 60% of its 52-week range ($136.57 – $248.29). Stretched risk/reward at 11x P/E (12% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
The Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (Farmer Mac; NYSE: AGM and AGM.A) today announced that it will release its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2026, on Thursday, November 5, 2026, a
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AGM today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AGM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) ranks #673 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #414 by equity capitalization ($2.21B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ECPG leads on earnings valuation at 8.4x trailing P/E, while ECPG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 60.4% ROIC and — gross margin. ECPG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with AGM at 56/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGM
ACTIVE
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation | D+ | 56/100 | 10.7x | — | 12.1% | -0.09% | $2.21B | Benchmark Subject |
| ECPG Encore Capital Group Inc | B | 73/100 | 8.4x | — | 60.4% | +0.73% | $2.17B | /ecpg-vs-agm → |
| TY Tri Continental Corporation | D | 51/100 | — | — | — | -0.06% | $1.88B | /ty-vs-agm → |
| BDJ Blackrock Enhanced Equity Dividend Trust | D+ | 54/100 | — | — | — | +1.25% | $1.72B | /bdj-vs-agm → |
| CSQ Calamos Strategic Total Return | D | 51/100 | — | — | — | -0.50% | $3.18B | /csq-vs-agm → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $207.4M, operating cash flow of $80.1M, and free cash flow of $80.1M (-86.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, AGM closed FY2025 with $35.37B in total assets against $19.54B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $207.4M | $80.1M | $80.1M | $35.37B | $19.54B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $207.2M | $612.6M | $612.6M | $31.32B | $17.08B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $200.0M | $375.8M | $375.8M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-01, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (NYSE: AGM) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $203.95 (-0.09% 1D, market cap $2.21B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, AGM ranks #673 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Financials sector (Finance Companies), AGM carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.1%. By comparison, ECPG (Encore Capital Group Inc) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 8.4x, ROIC 60.4%, cap $2.17B) and TY (Tri Continental Corporation) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.88B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ECPG leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while ECPG leads on capital efficiency (60.4% ROIC).
Per AGM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000845877), Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $207.4M in net income, and $80.1M in free cash flow against $35.37B in total assets and $19.54B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
AGM last traded at $203.95 (-0.09% on volume of 74,956 shares), positioning the stock -4.57% below its 50-day simple moving average ($213.71) and +8.00% above its 200-day simple moving average ($188.84). Across its 52-week range of $136.57 to $248.29, AGM sits at the 60.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.5% ($194.77 to $213.13).
Why AGM Stock slipped -0.09% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 11x P/E (12% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.