Stock Ratings / Financials / AGM / earnings

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Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4.5% Move

$203.95 -0.09% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $203.53

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.21B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $203.52 (-0.21%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AGM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AGM SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$203.90+0% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$203.97-2.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$199.64+2.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$203.95-0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (48) → D+ (56)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AGM Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, AGM faces multiple-compression risk if 10.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($213.71) or 200D SMA ($188.84) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($202.11) toward Bear Floor ($157.65).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AGM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AGM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4.5% Swing Band

±$9.18 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

AGM Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 56/100

Trailing EPS: $19.11 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (56/100)Model Risk Weight (44/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	$207.4M	$80.1M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$0	$207.2M	$612.6M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$0	$200.0M	$375.8M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AGM)

✓Walkthrough of AGM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

AGM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +17.35%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $202.8H $204.1L $201.5C $204.0VOL 152.8K

RES: $247.1SUP: $193.3SMA50: $213.7SMA200: $188.8

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AGM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AGM Butterfly Map → + Track AGM →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

0.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AGM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AGM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AGM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AGM)

Financials Rank #673 of 1096 ⚔️ ECPG vs AGM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AGM vs. ECPG, TY, BDJ, CSQ)

Industry: Finance Companies (27 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) ranks #673 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #414 by equity capitalization ($2.21B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ECPG leads on earnings valuation at 8.4x trailing P/E, while ECPG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 60.4% ROIC and — gross margin. ECPG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with AGM at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AGM ACTIVE Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation	D+	56/100	10.7x	—	12.1%	-0.09%	$2.21B	Benchmark Subject
ECPG Encore Capital Group Inc	B	73/100	8.4x	—	60.4%	+0.73%	$2.17B	/ecpg-vs-agm →
TY Tri Continental Corporation	D	51/100	—	—	—	-0.06%	$1.88B	/ty-vs-agm →
BDJ Blackrock Enhanced Equity Dividend Trust	D+	54/100	—	—	—	+1.25%	$1.72B	/bdj-vs-agm →
CSQ Calamos Strategic Total Return	D	51/100	—	—	—	-0.50%	$3.18B	/csq-vs-agm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000845877

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $207.4M, operating cash flow of $80.1M, and free cash flow of $80.1M (-86.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, AGM closed FY2025 with $35.37B in total assets against $19.54B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$207.4M	$80.1M	$80.1M	$35.37B	$19.54B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$207.2M	$612.6M	$612.6M	$31.32B	$17.08B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$200.0M	$375.8M	$375.8M	—	—

3. AGM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AGM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (NYSE: AGM) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $203.95 (-0.09% 1D, market cap $2.21B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, AGM ranks #673 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AGM compare to ECPG and TY in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance Companies), AGM carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.1%. By comparison, ECPG (Encore Capital Group Inc) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 8.4x, ROIC 60.4%, cap $2.17B) and TY (Tri Continental Corporation) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.88B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ECPG leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while ECPG leads on capital efficiency (60.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGM?

Per AGM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000845877), Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $207.4M in net income, and $80.1M in free cash flow against $35.37B in total assets and $19.54B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AGM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AGM last traded at $203.95 (-0.09% on volume of 74,956 shares), positioning the stock -4.57% below its 50-day simple moving average ($213.71) and +8.00% above its 200-day simple moving average ($188.84). Across its 52-week range of $136.57 to $248.29, AGM sits at the 60.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.5% ($194.77 to $213.13).

AGM Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is AGM's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is AGM stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±4.5% event move for AGM, spanning a range between $194.77 and $213.13.

Direct Sub-Reports: AGM RQD Cockpit AGM 12M Forecast AGM Earnings & Move AGM Dividends & DRIP AGM Insiders & 13F AGM Whale Options AGM Profit Sankey AGM News & Why