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Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$203.95 -0.09% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $203.53

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.21B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $203.52 (-0.21%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AGM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AGM SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$203.90+0% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$203.97-2.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$199.64+2.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$203.95-0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (48) → D+ (56)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AGM Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, AGM faces multiple-compression risk if 10.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($213.71) or 200D SMA ($188.84) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($202.11) toward Bear Floor ($157.65).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AGM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AGM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your AGM Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $203.95: 49.0 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $157.65

$7,730

$-2,270 (-22.7%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $202.11

$9,910

$-90 (-0.9%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $260.70

$12,783

+$2,783 (+27.8%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$210	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$245	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$180	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AGM)

✓Walkthrough of AGM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

AGM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +17.35%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $202.8H $204.1L $201.5C $204.0VOL 152.8K

RES: $247.1SUP: $193.3SMA50: $213.7SMA200: $188.8

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AGM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AGM Butterfly Map → + Track AGM →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

0.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AGM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AGM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AGM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AGM)

Financials Rank #673 of 1096 ⚔️ ECPG vs AGM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AGM vs. ECPG, TY, BDJ, CSQ)

Industry: Finance Companies (27 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) ranks #673 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #414 by equity capitalization ($2.21B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ECPG leads on earnings valuation at 8.4x trailing P/E, while ECPG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 60.4% ROIC and — gross margin. ECPG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with AGM at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AGM ACTIVE Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation	D+	56/100	10.7x	—	12.1%	-0.09%	$2.21B	Benchmark Subject
ECPG Encore Capital Group Inc	B	73/100	8.4x	—	60.4%	+0.73%	$2.17B	/ecpg-vs-agm →
TY Tri Continental Corporation	D	51/100	—	—	—	-0.06%	$1.88B	/ty-vs-agm →
BDJ Blackrock Enhanced Equity Dividend Trust	D+	54/100	—	—	—	+1.25%	$1.72B	/bdj-vs-agm →
CSQ Calamos Strategic Total Return	D	51/100	—	—	—	-0.50%	$3.18B	/csq-vs-agm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000845877

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $207.4M, operating cash flow of $80.1M, and free cash flow of $80.1M (-86.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, AGM closed FY2025 with $35.37B in total assets against $19.54B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$207.4M	$80.1M	$80.1M	$35.37B	$19.54B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$207.2M	$612.6M	$612.6M	$31.32B	$17.08B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$200.0M	$375.8M	$375.8M	—	—

3. AGM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AGM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (NYSE: AGM) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $203.95 (-0.09% 1D, market cap $2.21B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, AGM ranks #673 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AGM compare to ECPG and TY in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance Companies), AGM carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.1%. By comparison, ECPG (Encore Capital Group Inc) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 8.4x, ROIC 60.4%, cap $2.17B) and TY (Tri Continental Corporation) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.88B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ECPG leads on earnings multiple (8.4x) while ECPG leads on capital efficiency (60.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGM?

Per AGM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000845877), Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $207.4M in net income, and $80.1M in free cash flow against $35.37B in total assets and $19.54B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AGM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AGM last traded at $203.95 (-0.09% on volume of 74,956 shares), positioning the stock -4.57% below its 50-day simple moving average ($213.71) and +8.00% above its 200-day simple moving average ($188.84). Across its 52-week range of $136.57 to $248.29, AGM sits at the 60.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.5% ($194.77 to $213.13).

AGM Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is AGM's 12-month stock price target?

Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $202.11 (-0.9% from $203.95), with a bull-case target of $260.7 and a bear-case floor of $157.65.

Is AGM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates AGM D+ (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 56/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: AGM RQD Cockpit AGM 12M Forecast AGM Earnings & Move AGM Dividends & DRIP AGM Insiders & 13F AGM Whale Options AGM Profit Sankey AGM News & Why