MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why AGCC Stock surged +5.73% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$15.24 +5.73% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.37
Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd (Class A) (AGCC) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $872.8M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.37 (+0.84%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk C-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AGCC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AGCC SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (27% of score)
Altman Z-Score 26.00 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (25% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11.7% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$15.44+3.7% Next Q
56
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$16.01-5.7% Next Q
53
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C-$15.10+0.9% Next Q
51
CurrentGrade D$15.24-5.6% Hist 90D α
48
Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AGCC Turnaround Squeeze
While AGCC currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($14.59) and Max Pain ($16.00) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $27.02.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AGCC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AGCC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why AGCC Stock surged +5.73% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd (Class A) (AGCC) surged +5.73% to $15.24, trading at 50% of its 52-week range ($4.72 – $25.73). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (1% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 50% of its 52-week range ($4.72 – $25.73) with RSI-14 at 49.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±11.7% around $15.24 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 30.4% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live AGCC Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AGCC)
- ✓Walkthrough of AGCC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AGCC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.41%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $15.03H $15.24L $14.81C $15.24VOL 1.0K
RES: $17.95SUP: $10.20SMA50: $14.59SMA200: $14.90
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
AGCC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +144.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AGCC today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AGCC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AGCC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AGCC)
Consumer Staples Rank #97 of 146
⚔️ WEST vs AGCC Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (AGCC vs. WEST, SUJA, CCU, SAM)
Industry: Beverages (Production/Distribution) (35 Tracked Issuers)Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd (Class A) (AGCC) ranks #97 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #77 by equity capitalization ($872.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SAM leads on earnings valuation at 18.4x trailing P/E, while SAM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.4% ROIC and 48.5% gross margin. SAM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with AGCC at 48/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGCC
ACTIVE
Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd (Class A) | D | 48/100 | — | 30.4% | 1.4% | +5.73% | $872.8M | Benchmark Subject |
| WEST Westrock Coffee Company | D- | 37/100 | — | 12.7% | -11.8% | +2.79% | $994.2M | /west-vs-agcc → |
| SUJA Suja Life Inc. (Class A) | D+ | 54/100 | — | — | — | +5.70% | $415.2M | /suja-vs-agcc → |
| CCU Compania Cervecerias Unidas S.A. | D+ | 58/100 | — | — | — | -1.88% | $1.93B | /ccu-vs-agcc → |
| SAM Boston Beer Company Inc. | B- | 70/100 | 18.4x | 48.5% | 18.4% | +0.13% | $2.01B | /sam-vs-agcc → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002060016In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd (Class A) (AGCC) reported GAAP revenue of $6.2M (+144.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.5M , and +599.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $609.4K, operating cash flow of -$7.5M, and free cash flow of -$7.5M (-3066.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, AGCC closed FY2025 with $28.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 26.00, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $6.2M | $609.4K | -$7.5M | -$7.5M | $28.2M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $2.5M | $779.3K | -$236.8K | -$236.8K | $3.9M | $17.7K |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $887.3K | $239.3K | -$274.5K | -$274.5K | — | — |
3. AGCC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs AGCC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd (Class A) (NASDAQ: AGCC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $15.24 (+5.73% 1D, market cap $872.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, AGCC ranks #97 in composite RQD confidence.
How does AGCC compare to WEST and SUJA in the Consumer Staples sector?
Within the Consumer Staples sector (Beverages (Production/Distribution)), AGCC carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 30.4%, and ROIC of 1.4%. By comparison, WEST (Westrock Coffee Company) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -11.8%, cap $994.2M) and SUJA (Suja Life Inc. (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $415.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SAM leads on earnings multiple (18.4x) while SAM leads on capital efficiency (18.4% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGCC?
Per AGCC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002060016), Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd (Class A) generated $6.2M in revenue (+144.6% YoY), $609.4K in net income, and -$7.5M in free cash flow against $28.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is AGCC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
AGCC last traded at $15.24 (+5.73% on volume of 2,082 shares), positioning the stock +4.46% above its 50-day simple moving average ($14.59) and +2.28% above its 200-day simple moving average ($14.90). Across its 52-week range of $4.72 to $25.73, AGCC sits at the 50.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.7% ($13.46 to $17.02).
AGCC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is AGCC stock moving today?
Why AGCC Stock surged +5.73% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (1% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.