Stock Ratings / Utilities / ADTN / earnings

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ADTRAN Holdings Inc. (ADTN) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±9.4% Move

$6.94 -0.29% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.92

ADTRAN Holdings Inc. (ADTN) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $565.5M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.92 (-0.24%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ADTN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ADTN SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (28% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 5% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 41.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+11/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 55% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 14 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$7.46-15.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$6.31+1.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$6.43+7.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D$6.94-1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (58) → D (50)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ADTN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ADTN currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($7.13) and Max Pain ($7.29) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.98.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ADTN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ADTN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±9.4% Swing Band

±$0.65 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

ADTN Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 50/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 17.5%

Model Bullish Setup (50/100)Model Risk Weight (50/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$1.08B	-$45.7M	$98.0M	38.3%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$922.7M	-$459.9M	$69.1M	35.1%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$1.15B	-$268.9M	-$43.0M	38.3%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ADTN)

✓Walkthrough of ADTN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ADTN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -60.77%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $6.67H $6.94L $6.35C $6.94VOL 1.17M

RES: $7.52SUP: $6.06SMA50: $7.13SMA200: $11.13

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ADTN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ADTN Butterfly Map → + Track ADTN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +17.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ADTN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ADTN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ADTN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ADTN)

Utilities Rank #75 of 117 ⚔️ NTGR vs ADTN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Utilities Peer Comparison (ADTN vs. NTGR, CLFD, AUDC, FKWL)

Industry: Telecommunications Equipment (81 Tracked Issuers)

Across 117 tracked Utilities securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ADTRAN Holdings Inc. (ADTN) ranks #75 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #86 by equity capitalization ($565.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AUDC leads on earnings valuation at 31.8x trailing P/E, while AUDC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 8.8% ROIC and 65.0% gross margin. AUDC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 62/100 (C) compared with ADTN at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ADTN ACTIVE ADTRAN Holdings Inc.	D	50/100	—	38.3%	-2.9%	-0.29%	$565.5M	Benchmark Subject
NTGR NETGEAR Inc.	E	30/100	—	38.0%	-9.4%	+0.30%	$640.3M	/ntgr-vs-adtn →
CLFD Clearfield Inc.	D	50/100	—	33.7%	0.7%	+4.10%	$451.8M	/clfd-vs-adtn →
AUDC AudioCodes Ltd.	C	62/100	31.8x	65.0%	8.8%	-0.69%	$284.8M	/audc-vs-adtn →
FKWL Franklin Wireless Corp.	D	48/100	—	17.2%	-6.4%	0.00%	$25.8M	/fkwl-vs-adtn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000926282

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ADTRAN Holdings Inc. (ADTN) reported GAAP revenue of $1.08B (+17.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $922.7M , and -5.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$45.7M, operating cash flow of $129.8M, and free cash flow of $98.0M (+41.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, ADTN closed FY2025 with $1.20B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.78, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.08B	-$45.7M	$129.8M	$98.0M	$1.20B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$922.7M	-$459.9M	$103.6M	$69.1M	$1.17B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.15B	-$268.9M	-$43.0M	-$43.0M	—	—

3. ADTN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ADTN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, ADTRAN Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: ADTN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $6.94 (-0.29% 1D, market cap $565.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, ADTN ranks #75 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ADTN compare to NTGR and CLFD in the Utilities sector?

Within the Utilities sector (Telecommunications Equipment), ADTN carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 38.3%, and ROIC of -2.9%. By comparison, NTGR (NETGEAR Inc.) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -9.4%, cap $640.3M) and CLFD (Clearfield Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.7%, cap $451.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AUDC leads on earnings multiple (31.8x) while AUDC leads on capital efficiency (8.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ADTN?

Per ADTN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000926282), ADTRAN Holdings Inc. generated $1.08B in revenue (+17.5% YoY), -$45.7M in net income, and $98.0M in free cash flow against $1.20B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ADTN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ADTN last traded at $6.94 (-0.29% on volume of 1,144,151 shares), positioning the stock -2.66% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.13) and -37.65% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.13). Across its 52-week range of $6.29 to $19.98, ADTN sits at the 4.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.4% ($6.29 to $7.59).