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Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: What is ABR's 12-month stock price target?

Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $2.87 (-5% from $3.02), with a bull-case target of $10.61 and a bear-case floor of $2.24.

Q: Is ABR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates ABR D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 47/100.

$3.02 +2.37% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)

Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $563.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

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RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

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Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ABR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your ABR Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $3.02: 3311.3 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $2.24

$7,417

$-2,583 (-25.8%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $2.87

$9,503

$-497 (-5.0%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $10.61

$35,132

+$25,132 (+251.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$3	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$10	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$3	58%	C

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ABR)

✓Walkthrough of ABR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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ABR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -61.77%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $2.48H $3.02L $2.01C $3.02VOL 23.67M

RES: $5.46SUP: $2.17SMA50: $3.93SMA200: $5.94

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ABR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ABR Butterfly Map → + Track ABR →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ABR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ABR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ABR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ABR)

Financials Rank #906 of 1096 ⚔️ IVR vs ABR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ABR vs. IVR, UHT, BDN, PMT)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) ranks #906 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #678 by equity capitalization ($563.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, IVR leads on earnings valuation at 5.9x trailing P/E, while UHT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.8% ROIC and — gross margin. UHT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with ABR at 47/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ABR ACTIVE Arbor Realty Trust	D	47/100	—	—	5.6%	+2.37%	$563.4M	Benchmark Subject
IVR INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC	C-	61/100	5.9x	—	12.7%	-0.18%	$593.5M	/ivr-vs-abr →
UHT Universal Health Realty Income Trust	B	75/100	29.9x	—	18.8%	+3.02%	$526.3M	/uht-vs-abr →
BDN Brandywine Realty Trust	D+	55/100	—	—	2.8%	+3.43%	$513.5M	/bdn-vs-abr →
PMT PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust of	D-	42/100	7.5x	—	4.6%	+1.51%	$643.6M	/pmt-vs-abr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001253986

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $372.4M, and free cash flow of $372.4M (-19.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, ABR closed FY2025 with $14.49B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$0	$372.4M	$372.4M	$14.49B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$0	$461.5M	$461.5M	$13.49B	—

3. ABR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ABR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Arbor Realty Trust (NYSE: ABR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $3.02 (+2.37% 1D, market cap $563.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ABR ranks #906 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ABR compare to IVR and UHT in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ABR carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.6%. By comparison, IVR (INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 5.9x, ROIC 12.7%, cap $593.5M) and UHT (Universal Health Realty Income Trust) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 29.9x, ROIC 18.8%, cap $526.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, IVR leads on earnings multiple (5.9x) while UHT leads on capital efficiency (18.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ABR?

Per ABR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001253986), Arbor Realty Trust generated $0 in revenue, $0 in net income, and $372.4M in free cash flow against $14.49B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ABR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ABR last traded at $3.02 (+2.37% on volume of 8,439,624 shares), positioning the stock -23.16% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.93) and -49.16% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.94). Across its 52-week range of $2.01 to $10.10, ABR sits at the 12.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 21.7 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.64 to $3.40).

ABR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is ABR's 12-month stock price target?

Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $2.87 (-5% from $3.02), with a bull-case target of $10.61 and a bear-case floor of $2.24.

Is ABR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates ABR D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 47/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: ABR RQD Cockpit ABR 12M Forecast ABR Earnings & Move ABR Dividends & DRIP ABR Insiders & 13F ABR Whale Options ABR Profit Sankey ABR News & Why