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Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

Q: Should I buy, hold, or sell ABR stock right now?

Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 47/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (6% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

Q: What is ABR's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ABR's 12-month base price target is $2.87 (range $2.24 to $10.61), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

$3.02 +2.37% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.03

Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $563.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.03 (+0.24%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 9.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ABR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (47/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ABR SCORES 47/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 13 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$2.87-6.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$2.69+8.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$2.92+3.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D$3.02-5.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (39) → D (47)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ABR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ABR currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.93) and Max Pain ($3.17) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.61.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ABR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ABR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 47%NO 53%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERSOLD (<32)

21.730 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

2 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE12% OF RANGE

L: $2$3.02H: $10

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on ABR

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (45)

5.6% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (47)

18/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ABR

✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ABR)

✓Walkthrough of ABR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ABR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -61.77%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $2.48H $3.02L $2.01C $3.02VOL 23.67M

RES: $5.46SUP: $2.17SMA50: $3.93SMA200: $5.94

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ABR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ABR Butterfly Map → + Track ABR →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ABR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ABR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ABR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ABR)

Financials Rank #906 of 1096 ⚔️ IVR vs ABR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ABR vs. IVR, UHT, BDN, PMT)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) ranks #906 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #678 by equity capitalization ($563.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, IVR leads on earnings valuation at 5.9x trailing P/E, while UHT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.8% ROIC and — gross margin. UHT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with ABR at 47/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ABR ACTIVE Arbor Realty Trust	D	47/100	—	—	5.6%	+2.37%	$563.4M	Benchmark Subject
IVR INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC	C-	61/100	5.9x	—	12.7%	-0.18%	$593.5M	/ivr-vs-abr →
UHT Universal Health Realty Income Trust	B	75/100	29.9x	—	18.8%	+3.02%	$526.3M	/uht-vs-abr →
BDN Brandywine Realty Trust	D+	55/100	—	—	2.8%	+3.43%	$513.5M	/bdn-vs-abr →
PMT PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust of	D-	42/100	7.5x	—	4.6%	+1.51%	$643.6M	/pmt-vs-abr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001253986

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $372.4M, and free cash flow of $372.4M (-19.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, ABR closed FY2025 with $14.49B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$0	$372.4M	$372.4M	$14.49B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$0	$461.5M	$461.5M	$13.49B	—

3. ABR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ABR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Arbor Realty Trust (NYSE: ABR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $3.02 (+2.37% 1D, market cap $563.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ABR ranks #906 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ABR compare to IVR and UHT in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ABR carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.6%. By comparison, IVR (INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 5.9x, ROIC 12.7%, cap $593.5M) and UHT (Universal Health Realty Income Trust) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 29.9x, ROIC 18.8%, cap $526.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, IVR leads on earnings multiple (5.9x) while UHT leads on capital efficiency (18.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ABR?

Per ABR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001253986), Arbor Realty Trust generated $0 in revenue, $0 in net income, and $372.4M in free cash flow against $14.49B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ABR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ABR last traded at $3.02 (+2.37% on volume of 8,439,624 shares), positioning the stock -23.16% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.93) and -49.16% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.94). Across its 52-week range of $2.01 to $10.10, ABR sits at the 12.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 21.7 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.64 to $3.40).

ABR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell ABR stock right now?

Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 47/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (6% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is ABR's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ABR's 12-month base price target is $2.87 (range $2.24 to $10.61), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: ABR RQD Cockpit ABR 12M Forecast ABR Earnings & Move ABR Dividends & DRIP ABR Insiders & 13F ABR Whale Options ABR Profit Sankey ABR News & Why