Stock Ratings / Financials / ABR / earnings

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Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

Q: When is ABR's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

Q: How much is ABR stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for ABR, spanning a range between $2.64 and $3.4.

$3.02 +2.37% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.03

Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $563.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ABR Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ABR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, Arbor Realty Trust (NYSE: ABR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $3.02 (+2.37% 1D, market cap $563.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ABR ranks #906 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ABR compare to IVR and UHT in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ABR carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.6%. By comparison, IVR (INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 5.9x, ROIC 12.7%, cap $593.5M) and UHT (Universal Health Realty Income Trust) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 29.9x, ROIC 18.8%, cap $526.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, IVR leads on earnings multiple (5.9x) while UHT leads on capital efficiency (18.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ABR?

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Per ABR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001253986), Arbor Realty Trust generated $0 in revenue, $0 in net income, and $372.4M in free cash flow against $14.49B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.03 (+0.24%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 9.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ABR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (47/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ABR SCORES 47/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 13 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$2.87-6.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$2.69+8.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$2.92+3.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D$3.02-5.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (39) → D (47)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ABR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ABR currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.93) and Max Pain ($3.17) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.61.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ABR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ABR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 47%NO 53%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$0.38 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

ABR Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 47/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (47/100)Model Risk Weight (53/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	$0	$372.4M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$0	$0	$461.5M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ABR)

✓Walkthrough of ABR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ABR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -61.77%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $2.48H $3.02L $2.01C $3.02VOL 23.67M

RES: $5.46SUP: $2.17SMA50: $3.93SMA200: $5.94

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ABR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ABR Butterfly Map → + Track ABR →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ABR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ABR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ABR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ABR)

Financials Rank #906 of 1096 ⚔️ IVR vs ABR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ABR vs. IVR, UHT, BDN, PMT)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) ranks #906 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #678 by equity capitalization ($563.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, IVR leads on earnings valuation at 5.9x trailing P/E, while UHT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.8% ROIC and — gross margin. UHT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with ABR at 47/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ABR ACTIVE Arbor Realty Trust	D	47/100	—	—	5.6%	+2.37%	$563.4M	Benchmark Subject
IVR INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC	C-	61/100	5.9x	—	12.7%	-0.18%	$593.5M	/ivr-vs-abr →
UHT Universal Health Realty Income Trust	B	75/100	29.9x	—	18.8%	+3.02%	$526.3M	/uht-vs-abr →
BDN Brandywine Realty Trust	D+	55/100	—	—	2.8%	+3.43%	$513.5M	/bdn-vs-abr →
PMT PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust of	D-	42/100	7.5x	—	4.6%	+1.51%	$643.6M	/pmt-vs-abr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001253986

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $372.4M, and free cash flow of $372.4M (-19.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, ABR closed FY2025 with $14.49B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$0	$372.4M	$372.4M	$14.49B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$0	$461.5M	$461.5M	$13.49B	—

3. ABR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ABR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ABR compare to IVR and UHT in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ABR?

Where is ABR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ABR last traded at $3.02 (+2.37% on volume of 8,439,624 shares), positioning the stock -23.16% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.93) and -49.16% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.94). Across its 52-week range of $2.01 to $10.10, ABR sits at the 12.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 21.7 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.64 to $3.40).

ABR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is ABR's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is ABR stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for ABR, spanning a range between $2.64 and $3.4.

Direct Sub-Reports: ABR RQD Cockpit ABR 12M Forecast ABR Earnings & Move ABR Dividends & DRIP ABR Insiders & 13F ABR Whale Options ABR Profit Sankey ABR News & Why