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Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$9.23 +1.32% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.27

Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (29% profit margin, 30% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $64.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on OPXS Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is OPXS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: OPXS) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $9.23 (+1.32% 1D, market cap $64.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 20/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 19/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, OPXS ranks #102 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does OPXS compare to OPTX and RELL in the Technology sector?

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Within the Technology sector (Electronic Components), OPXS carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.5x, gross margin of 29.2%, and ROIC of 29.8%. By comparison, OPTX (Syntec Optics Holdings Inc. (Class A)) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.8%, cap $294.0M) and RELL (Richardson Electronics Ltd.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 48.8x, ROIC 4.1%, cap $311.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, OPXS leads on earnings multiple (12.5x) while OPXS leads on capital efficiency (29.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OPXS?

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Per OPXS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-28, CIK 0001397016), Optex Systems Holdings Inc. generated $41.3M in revenue (+21.6% YoY), $5.1M in net income, and $6.4M in free cash flow against $30.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (29% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.27 (+0.48%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 20/20 (A+) • 15.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OPXS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY OPXS SCORES 70/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+20/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 15.6% FCF Margin ($6.4M FCF) & 29.2% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+19/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade A-$10.10-4.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B+$9.68-2.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$9.48-2.6% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$9.23+6.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: A- (78) → B- (70)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the OPXS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, OPXS faces multiple-compression risk if 12.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 26.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($10.11) or 200D SMA ($11.88) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($9.73) toward Bear Floor ($7.57).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OPXS• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “OPXS Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 70%NO 30%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

3330 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

10.17>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

8 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE2% OF RANGE

L: $9$9.23H: $17

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (29% profit margin and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: A+RQD 20 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 28 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on OPXS

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (98)

29.8% ROIC with 29.2% gross margin and 10.02% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (90)

Altman-Z 10.17 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (53)

22/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like OPXS

✓Strong cash generator (29% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (OPXS Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

OPXS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -14.70%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-02O $9.11H $9.23L $9.11C $9.23VOL 6.2K

RES: $9.89SUP: $9.07SMA50: $10.11SMA200: $11.88

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OPXS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OPXS Butterfly Map → + Track OPXS →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

3.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +21.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OPXS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OPXS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OPXS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OPXS)

Technology Rank #102 of 714 ⚔️ OPTX vs OPXS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (OPXS vs. OPTX, RELL, DCM, MSAI)

Industry: Electronic Components (21 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) ranks #102 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #551 by equity capitalization ($64.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OPXS leads on earnings valuation at 12.5x trailing P/E, while OPXS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 29.8% ROIC and 29.2% gross margin. OPXS currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 70/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
OPXS ACTIVE Optex Systems Holdings Inc.	B-	70/100	12.5x	29.2%	29.8%	+1.32%	$64.2M	Benchmark Subject
OPTX Syntec Optics Holdings Inc. (Class A)	D	46/100	—	23.3%	-2.8%	+0.83%	$294.0M	/optx-vs-opxs →
RELL Richardson Electronics Ltd.	D+	57/100	48.8x	31.2%	4.1%	-0.81%	$311.4M	/rell-vs-opxs →
DCM DeFi Capital Markets Inc.	D-	43/100	—	16.6%	-35.0%	-6.70%	$10.1M	/dcm-vs-opxs →
MSAI MultiSensor AI Holdings Inc.	E	19/100	—	—	-35.0%	+2.24%	$7.6M	/msai-vs-opxs →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-28 • CIK 0001397016

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-28), Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) reported GAAP revenue of $41.3M (+21.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $34.0M , and +61.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $5.1M, operating cash flow of $6.9M, and free cash flow of $6.4M (+485.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, OPXS closed FY2025 with $30.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 10.17, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-28	$41.3M	$5.1M	$6.9M	$6.4M	$30.2M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-29	$34.0M	$3.8M	$1.8M	$1.1M	$24.8M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-10-01	$25.7M	$2.3M	-$296.0K	-$296.0K	—	—

3. OPXS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OPXS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does OPXS compare to OPTX and RELL in the Technology sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OPXS?

Where is OPXS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OPXS last traded at $9.23 (+1.32% on volume of 6,203 shares), positioning the stock -8.70% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.11) and -22.31% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.88). Across its 52-week range of $9.04 to $17.38, OPXS sits at the 2.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.3% ($8.65 to $9.81).

OPXS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell OPXS stock right now?

Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) currently earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy — BUY) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (29% profit margin, 30% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

What is OPXS's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

OPXS's 12-month base price target is $9.73 (range $7.57 to $18.25), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: OPXS RQD Cockpit OPXS 12M Forecast OPXS Earnings & Move OPXS Dividends & DRIP OPXS Insiders & 13F OPXS Whale Options OPXS Profit Sankey OPXS News & Why