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Orange County Bancorp Inc. (OBT) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$38.58 +1.26% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.59

Orange County Bancorp Inc. (OBT) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $517.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on OBT Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is OBT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Orange County Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: OBT) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $38.58 (+1.26% 1D, market cap $517.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, OBT ranks #162 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does OBT compare to WTBA and COFS in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), OBT carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.6%. By comparison, WTBA (West Bancorporation) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 15.7x, ROIC 12.2%, cap $512.0M) and COFS (ChoiceOne Financial Services Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 18.6x, ROIC 6.1%, cap $523.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, OBT leads on earnings multiple (12.4x) while OBT leads on capital efficiency (14.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OBT?

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Per OBT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001754226), Orange County Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $41.6M in net income, and $41.3M in free cash flow against $2.66B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.60 (+0.04%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OBT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY OBT SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (19% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1% FCF Margin ($41.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (58.9) create a -7 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$37.30-1.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$36.75+4.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$38.42+0.4% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$38.58+2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the OBT Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, OBT faces multiple-compression risk if 12.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($37.78) or 200D SMA ($35.50) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($40.49) toward Bear Floor ($31.58).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OBT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “OBT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

58.930 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE89% OF RANGE

L: $24$38.58H: $40

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: CRQD 13 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: BRQD 30 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on OBT

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (65)

14.6% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 7.99% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (72)

30/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 13/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like OBT

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (OBT Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

OBT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +15.27%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE

2026-11-02O $38.10H $38.58L $38.10C $38.58VOL 81.6K

RES: $40.51SUP: $35.97SMA50: $37.78SMA200: $35.50

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OBT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OBT Butterfly Map → + Track OBT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

3.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OBT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OBT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OBT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OBT)

Financials Rank #162 of 1096 ⚔️ WTBA vs OBT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (OBT vs. WTBA, COFS, CZNC, PBAM)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Orange County Bancorp Inc. (OBT) ranks #162 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #694 by equity capitalization ($517.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OBT leads on earnings valuation at 12.4x trailing P/E, while OBT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.6% ROIC and — gross margin. WTBA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with OBT at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
OBT ACTIVE Orange County Bancorp Inc.	C+	69/100	12.4x	—	14.6%	+1.26%	$517.3M	Benchmark Subject
WTBA West Bancorporation	B	72/100	15.7x	—	12.2%	-1.38%	$512.0M	/wtba-vs-obt →
COFS ChoiceOne Financial Services Inc.	C	63/100	18.6x	—	6.1%	+1.72%	$523.4M	/cofs-vs-obt →
CZNC Citizens & Northern Corp	C+	68/100	21.3x	—	6.9%	+1.20%	$498.9M	/cznc-vs-obt →
PBAM Private Bancorp of America Inc.	D+	55/100	—	—	—	+0.22%	$490.2M	/pbam-vs-obt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001754226

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Orange County Bancorp Inc. (OBT) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $41.6M, operating cash flow of $43.8M, and free cash flow of $41.3M (+25.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, OBT closed FY2025 with $2.66B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$41.6M	$43.8M	$41.3M	$2.66B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$27.9M	$34.6M	$32.9M	$2.51B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$29.5M	$44.5M	$44.5M	—	—

3. OBT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OBT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does OBT compare to WTBA and COFS in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OBT?

Where is OBT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OBT last traded at $38.58 (+1.26% on volume of 81,588 shares), positioning the stock +2.12% above its 50-day simple moving average ($37.78) and +8.68% above its 200-day simple moving average ($35.50). Across its 52-week range of $23.75 to $40.49, OBT sits at the 88.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.6% ($36.42 to $40.74).

OBT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell OBT stock right now?

Orange County Bancorp Inc. (OBT) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold — HOLD) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (15% return on capital), mixed timing at 12x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is OBT's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

OBT's 12-month base price target is $40.49 (range $31.58 to $47.78), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: OBT RQD Cockpit OBT 12M Forecast OBT Earnings & Move OBT Dividends & DRIP OBT Insiders & 13F OBT Whale Options OBT Profit Sankey OBT News & Why