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Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$27.81 -1.00% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $27.71

Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 49/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.96B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NOG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NOG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NYSE: NOG) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $27.81 (-1.00% 1D, market cap $2.96B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, NOG ranks #153 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NOG compare to TALO and GPOR in the Energy sector?

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Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), NOG carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 76.4x, gross margin of 80.9%, and ROIC of 9.2%. By comparison, TALO (Talos Energy Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -14.6%, cap $2.97B) and GPOR (Gulfport Energy Corporation) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 6.8x, ROIC 18.1%, cap $2.92B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GPOR leads on earnings multiple (6.8x) while GPOR leads on capital efficiency (18.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NOG?

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Per NOG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001104485), Northern Oil and Gas Inc. generated $2.48B in revenue (+11.2% YoY), $38.8M in net income, and $1.51B in free cash flow against $5.41B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $27.71 (-0.37%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 60.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NOG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (49/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NOG SCORES 49/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 60.8% FCF Margin ($1.51B FCF) & 80.9% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.28 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$24.76+9.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$27.16+4.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$28.26-1.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D$27.81-5.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (41) → D (49)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NOG Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NOG currently carries a cautious 49/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($25.75) and Max Pain ($29.20) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $32.73.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NOG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NOG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 49%NO 51%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

66.130 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

1.28>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE76% OF RANGE

L: $17$27.81H: $31

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (81% profit margin), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 15 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on NOG

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (60)

9.2% ROIC with 80.9% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (60)

Altman-Z 1.28 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (42)

15/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like NOG

✓Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Priced at 76x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NOG)

✓Walkthrough of NOG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

NOG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +2.39%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $28.22H $28.40L $27.81C $27.81VOL 1.24M

RES: $28.85SUP: $24.46SMA50: $25.75SMA200: $24.55

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NOG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NOG Butterfly Map → + Track NOG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NOG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NOG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NOG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NOG)

Energy Rank #153 of 211 ⚔️ TALO vs NOG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (NOG vs. TALO, GPOR, SDRL, CPK)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) ranks #153 by composite RQD confidence (49/100, grade D) and #107 by equity capitalization ($2.96B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GPOR leads on earnings valuation at 6.8x trailing P/E, while GPOR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.1% ROIC and 74.8% gross margin. GPOR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with NOG at 49/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NOG ACTIVE Northern Oil and Gas Inc.	D	49/100	76.4x	80.9%	9.2%	-1.00%	$2.96B	Benchmark Subject
TALO Talos Energy Inc.	C-	59/100	—	—	-14.6%	-2.20%	$2.97B	/talo-vs-nog →
GPOR Gulfport Energy Corporation	B	74/100	6.8x	74.8%	18.1%	-0.42%	$2.92B	/gpor-vs-nog →
SDRL Seadrill Limited	D-	42/100	—	—	1.2%	-1.30%	$3.24B	/sdrl-vs-nog →
CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corporation	D+	58/100	23.3x	—	6.9%	+1.39%	$3.27B	/cpk-vs-nog →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001104485

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) reported GAAP revenue of $2.48B (+11.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.23B , and +14.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $38.8M, operating cash flow of $1.51B, and free cash flow of $1.51B (+6.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, NOG closed FY2025 with $5.41B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.28, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.48B	$38.8M	$1.51B	$1.51B	$5.41B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.23B	$520.3M	$1.41B	$1.41B	$5.60B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$2.17B	$923.0M	$1.18B	$1.18B	—	—

3. NOG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NOG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does NOG compare to TALO and GPOR in the Energy sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NOG?

Where is NOG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NOG last traded at $27.81 (-1.00% on volume of 953,683 shares), positioning the stock +8.00% above its 50-day simple moving average ($25.75) and +13.28% above its 200-day simple moving average ($24.55). Across its 52-week range of $17.18 to $31.17, NOG sits at the 76.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.0% ($25.86 to $29.76).

NOG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell NOG stock right now?

Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 49/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 76x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is NOG's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

NOG's 12-month base price target is $26.68 (range $20.81 to $32.73), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: NOG RQD Cockpit NOG 12M Forecast NOG Earnings & Move NOG Dividends & DRIP NOG Insiders & 13F NOG Whale Options NOG Profit Sankey NOG News & Why