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Commercial Bancgroup Inc. (CBK) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$32.99 +1.17% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $33.00

Commercial Bancgroup Inc. (CBK) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $452.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $33.00 (+0.02%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CBK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CBK SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 78% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 60.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$30.89+2.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$31.61+1.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$32.22+2.4% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$32.99+2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CBK Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, CBK faces multiple-compression risk if 12.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($32.57) or 200D SMA ($30.07) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($34.62) toward Bear Floor ($27.00).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CBK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CBK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

60.330 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

4 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE78% OF RANGE

L: $23$32.99H: $36

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 28 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: BRQD 29 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on CBK

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (60)

13.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 7.79% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (73)

28/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 16/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like CBK

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (CBK Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

CBK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +13.92%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $32.98H $33.50L $32.80C $32.99VOL 38.1K

RES: $38.39SUP: $30.13SMA50: $32.57SMA200: $30.07

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CBK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CBK Butterfly Map → + Track CBK →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

2.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CBK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CBK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CBK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CBK)

Financials Rank #191 of 1096 ⚔️ RBB vs CBK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (CBK vs. RBB, BMRC, CBAN, CHMG)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Commercial Bancgroup Inc. (CBK) ranks #191 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #728 by equity capitalization ($452.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CBK leads on earnings valuation at 12.2x trailing P/E, while CBK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CBK currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CBK ACTIVE Commercial Bancgroup Inc.	C+	69/100	12.2x	—	13.0%	+1.17%	$452.0M	Benchmark Subject
RBB RBB Bancorp	C-	59/100	13.8x	—	6.1%	-0.23%	$440.5M	/rbb-vs-cbk →
BMRC Bank of Marin Bancorp	C+	66/100	17.6x	—	6.7%	-0.31%	$466.4M	/bmrc-vs-cbk →
CBAN Colony Bankcorp Inc.	D-	40/100	65.5x	—	1.8%	+0.30%	$433.3M	/cban-vs-cbk →
CHMG Chemung Financial Corp	C+	68/100	28.0x	—	5.9%	+2.10%	$422.4M	/chmg-vs-cbk →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001981546

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Commercial Bancgroup Inc. (CBK) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $37.2M, operating cash flow of $37.1M, and free cash flow of $35.2M (-1.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, CBK closed FY2025 with $2.29B in total assets against $78.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$37.2M	$37.1M	$35.2M	$2.29B	$78.6M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$31.4M	$38.7M	$35.6M	$2.30B	$105.8M

3. CBK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CBK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Commercial Bancgroup Inc. (NASDAQ: CBK) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $32.99 (+1.17% 1D, market cap $452.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, CBK ranks #191 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CBK compare to RBB and BMRC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), CBK carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.0%. By comparison, RBB (RBB Bancorp) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 13.8x, ROIC 6.1%, cap $440.5M) and BMRC (Bank of Marin Bancorp) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 17.6x, ROIC 6.7%, cap $466.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CBK leads on earnings multiple (12.2x) while CBK leads on capital efficiency (13.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CBK?

Per CBK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001981546), Commercial Bancgroup Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $37.2M in net income, and $35.2M in free cash flow against $2.29B in total assets and $78.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CBK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CBK last traded at $32.99 (+1.17% on volume of 18,497 shares), positioning the stock +1.29% above its 50-day simple moving average ($32.57) and +9.71% above its 200-day simple moving average ($30.07). Across its 52-week range of $23.24 to $35.78, CBK sits at the 77.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.2% ($31.27 to $34.71).

CBK Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell CBK stock right now?

Commercial Bancgroup Inc. (CBK) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold — HOLD) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (13% return on capital), mixed timing at 12x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is CBK's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

CBK's 12-month base price target is $34.62 (range $27 to $40.85), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: CBK RQD Cockpit CBK 12M Forecast CBK Earnings & Move CBK Dividends & DRIP CBK Insiders & 13F CBK Whale Options CBK Profit Sankey CBK News & Why