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ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

Q: Should I buy, hold, or sell ARR stock right now?

ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C (Hold — HOLD) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (14% return on capital), mixed timing at 6x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

Q: What is ARR's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ARR's 12-month base price target is $13.08 (range $10.2 to $20.28), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

$12.79 +0.95% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.79

ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.90B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.79 (-0.02%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 3.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ARR SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 7% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 31 (OVERSOLD (<32))

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 12 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$13.59-2.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$13.20-2.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$12.88-0.7% Next Q

Current

Grade C$12.79+0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (71) → C (63)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ARR Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, ARR faces multiple-compression risk if 5.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($14.43) or 200D SMA ($16.50) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($13.08) toward Bear Floor ($10.20).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ARR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERSOLD (<32)

3130 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

4 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE7% OF RANGE

L: $12$12.79H: $19

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 8 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 28 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on ARR

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (40)

14.3% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 6.54% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (70)

27/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 15/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ARR

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ARR Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ARR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -27.08%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $12.73H $12.85L $12.38C $12.79VOL 5.29M

RES: $18.33SUP: $11.82SMA50: $14.43SMA200: $16.50

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARR Butterfly Map → + Track ARR →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-11.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARR)

Financials Rank #387 of 1096 ⚔️ DHC vs ARR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ARR vs. DHC, RLJ, FRMI, BXMT)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) ranks #387 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #433 by equity capitalization ($1.90B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARR leads on earnings valuation at 5.9x trailing P/E, while ARR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.3% ROIC and — gross margin. BXMT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with ARR at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ARR ACTIVE ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc.	C	63/100	5.9x	—	14.3%	+0.95%	$1.90B	Benchmark Subject
DHC Diversified Healthcare Trust of	D-	36/100	—	—	-17.2%	+2.18%	$1.93B	/dhc-vs-arr →
RLJ RLJ Lodging Trust of $0.01 par value	D+	53/100	67.9x	—	1.3%	+1.68%	$1.94B	/rlj-vs-arr →
FRMI Fermi Inc.	E	34/100	—	—	-20.4%	-5.30%	$1.83B	/frmi-vs-arr →
BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc.	C	64/100	16.7x	—	3.1%	+2.94%	$1.83B	/bxmt-vs-arr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001428205

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $322.7M, operating cash flow of $124.2M, and free cash flow of $124.2M (-52.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARR closed FY2025 with $21.01B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$322.7M	$124.2M	$124.2M	$21.01B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$14.4M	$261.5M	$261.5M	$13.55B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$67.9M	$132.8M	$132.8M	—	—

3. ARR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (NYSE: ARR) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $12.79 (+0.95% 1D, market cap $1.90B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ARR ranks #387 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ARR compare to DHC and RLJ in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ARR carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 14.3%. By comparison, DHC (Diversified Healthcare Trust of) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -17.2%, cap $1.93B) and RLJ (RLJ Lodging Trust of $0.01 par value) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 67.9x, ROIC 1.3%, cap $1.94B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARR leads on earnings multiple (5.9x) while ARR leads on capital efficiency (14.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARR?

Per ARR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001428205), ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $322.7M in net income, and $124.2M in free cash flow against $21.01B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ARR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARR last traded at $12.79 (+0.95% on volume of 3,436,253 shares), positioning the stock -11.37% below its 50-day simple moving average ($14.43) and -22.48% below its 200-day simple moving average ($16.50). Across its 52-week range of $12.28 to $19.31, ARR sits at the 7.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.0 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.8% ($11.92 to $13.66).

ARR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell ARR stock right now?

ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. (ARR) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C (Hold — HOLD) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (14% return on capital), mixed timing at 6x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is ARR's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ARR's 12-month base price target is $13.08 (range $10.2 to $20.28), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: ARR RQD Cockpit ARR 12M Forecast ARR Earnings & Move ARR Dividends & DRIP ARR Insiders & 13F ARR Whale Options ARR Profit Sankey ARR News & Why