Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / XPOF / earnings

AIBZ (47) SEG (24) TP (60) CDRO (49) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$3.74 -6.73% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.69

Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $184.5M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on XPOF Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is XPOF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: XPOF) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $3.74 (-6.73% 1D, market cap $184.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, XPOF ranks #750 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does XPOF compare to AIBZ and SEG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), XPOF carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.8%. By comparison, AIBZ (Bitzero Holdings Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $202.8M) and SEG (Seaport Entertainment Group Inc.) posts a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.6%, cap $295.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, XPOF leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while XPOF leads on capital efficiency (6.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for XPOF?

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Per XPOF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001802156), Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) generated $314.9M in revenue (-1.7% YoY), -$38.7M in net income, and $24.7M in free cash flow against $345.6M in total assets and $500.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.69 (-1.40%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 7.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for XPOF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY XPOF SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (27% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 3% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 52 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 7.9% FCF Margin ($24.7M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$4.95-9.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$4.47-6.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$4.19-10.7% Next Q

Current

Grade D$3.74-6.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → D (45)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a XPOF Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While XPOF currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.49) and Max Pain ($3.93) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.71.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $XPOF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “XPOF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$0.47 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

XPOF Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 45/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: -1.7%

Model Bullish Setup (45/100)Model Risk Weight (55/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$314.9M	-$38.7M	$24.7M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$320.3M	-$67.7M	$7.0M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$317.9M	-$4.0M	$32.7M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring XPOF)

✓Walkthrough of XPOF's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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XPOF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -43.16%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $3.68H $4.68L $3.58C $3.74VOL 1.88M

RES: $4.95SUP: $2.51SMA50: $4.49SMA200: $6.03

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

XPOF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 XPOF Butterfly Map → + Track XPOF →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

28.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -1.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on XPOF today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for XPOF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for XPOF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (XPOF)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #750 of 1011 ⚔️ AIBZ vs XPOF Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (XPOF vs. AIBZ, SEG, TP, CDRO)

Industry: Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) ranks #750 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #706 by equity capitalization ($184.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, XPOF leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while XPOF leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 6.8% ROIC and — gross margin. TP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 60/100 (C-) compared with XPOF at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
XPOF ACTIVE Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A)	D	45/100	—	—	6.8%	-6.73%	$184.5M	Benchmark Subject
AIBZ Bitzero Holdings Inc.	D	47/100	—	—	—	-12.37%	$202.8M	/aibz-vs-xpof →
SEG Seaport Entertainment Group Inc.	E	24/100	—	—	-24.6%	+1.27%	$295.3M	/seg-vs-xpof →
TP Ticketplus Ltd.	C-	60/100	—	—	—	0.00%	$103.1M	/tp-vs-xpof →
CDRO Codere Online Luxembourg S.A.	D	49/100	—	—	—	-5.86%	$387.4M	/cdro-vs-xpof →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001802156

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) reported GAAP revenue of $314.9M (-1.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $320.3M , and -1.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$38.7M, operating cash flow of $28.3M, and free cash flow of $24.7M (+255.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, XPOF closed FY2025 with $345.6M in total assets against $500.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$314.9M	-$38.7M	$28.3M	$24.7M	$345.6M	$500.5M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$320.3M	-$67.7M	$11.7M	$7.0M	$403.4M	$341.7M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$317.9M	-$4.0M	$32.7M	$32.7M	—	—

3. XPOF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is XPOF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does XPOF compare to AIBZ and SEG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for XPOF?

Where is XPOF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

XPOF last traded at $3.74 (-6.73% on volume of 1,298,601 shares), positioning the stock -16.70% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.49) and -37.98% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.03). Across its 52-week range of $3.57 to $9.25, XPOF sits at the 3.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($3.27 to $4.21).

XPOF Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is XPOF's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is XPOF stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for XPOF, spanning a range between $3.27 and $4.21.

Direct Sub-Reports: XPOF RQD Cockpit XPOF 12M Forecast XPOF Earnings & Move XPOF Dividends & DRIP XPOF Insiders & 13F XPOF Whale Options XPOF Profit Sankey XPOF News & Why