Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / XPOF / dividends

AIBZ (47) SEG (24) TP (60) CDRO (49) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$3.74 -6.73% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.69

Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $184.5M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.69 (-1.40%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 7.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for XPOF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY XPOF SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (27% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 3% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 52 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 7.9% FCF Margin ($24.7M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$4.95-9.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$4.47-6.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$4.19-10.7% Next Q

Current

Grade D$3.74-6.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → D (45)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a XPOF Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While XPOF currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.49) and Max Pain ($3.93) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.71.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $XPOF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “XPOF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD

1.8% Total Yield

0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks

PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER

74/100 • REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS

FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO

0% (100% Reinvested)

Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases

INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (5.5% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $17,081

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $307/yr

Starting Investment: $10,000

Compounding Horizon: 10 Years

$10.6K

Yr 1

$11.1K

Yr 2

$11.7K

Yr 3

$12.4K

Yr 4

$13.1K

Yr 5

$13.8K

Yr 6

$14.5K

Yr 7

$15.3K

Yr 8

$16.2K

Yr 9

$17.1K

Yr 10

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring XPOF)

✓Walkthrough of XPOF's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

XPOF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -43.16%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $3.68H $4.68L $3.58C $3.74VOL 1.88M

RES: $4.95SUP: $2.51SMA50: $4.49SMA200: $6.03

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

XPOF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 XPOF Butterfly Map → + Track XPOF →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

28.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -1.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on XPOF today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for XPOF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for XPOF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (XPOF)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #750 of 1011 ⚔️ AIBZ vs XPOF Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (XPOF vs. AIBZ, SEG, TP, CDRO)

Industry: Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) ranks #750 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #706 by equity capitalization ($184.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, XPOF leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while XPOF leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 6.8% ROIC and — gross margin. TP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 60/100 (C-) compared with XPOF at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
XPOF ACTIVE Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A)	D	45/100	—	—	6.8%	-6.73%	$184.5M	Benchmark Subject
AIBZ Bitzero Holdings Inc.	D	47/100	—	—	—	-12.37%	$202.8M	/aibz-vs-xpof →
SEG Seaport Entertainment Group Inc.	E	24/100	—	—	-24.6%	+1.27%	$295.3M	/seg-vs-xpof →
TP Ticketplus Ltd.	C-	60/100	—	—	—	0.00%	$103.1M	/tp-vs-xpof →
CDRO Codere Online Luxembourg S.A.	D	49/100	—	—	—	-5.86%	$387.4M	/cdro-vs-xpof →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001802156

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) reported GAAP revenue of $314.9M (-1.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $320.3M , and -1.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$38.7M, operating cash flow of $28.3M, and free cash flow of $24.7M (+255.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, XPOF closed FY2025 with $345.6M in total assets against $500.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$314.9M	-$38.7M	$28.3M	$24.7M	$345.6M	$500.5M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$320.3M	-$67.7M	$11.7M	$7.0M	$403.4M	$341.7M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$317.9M	-$4.0M	$32.7M	$32.7M	—	—

3. XPOF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is XPOF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: XPOF) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $3.74 (-6.73% 1D, market cap $184.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, XPOF ranks #750 in composite RQD confidence.

How does XPOF compare to AIBZ and SEG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), XPOF carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.8%. By comparison, AIBZ (Bitzero Holdings Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $202.8M) and SEG (Seaport Entertainment Group Inc.) posts a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.6%, cap $295.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, XPOF leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while XPOF leads on capital efficiency (6.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for XPOF?

Per XPOF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001802156), Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) generated $314.9M in revenue (-1.7% YoY), -$38.7M in net income, and $24.7M in free cash flow against $345.6M in total assets and $500.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is XPOF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

XPOF last traded at $3.74 (-6.73% on volume of 1,298,601 shares), positioning the stock -16.70% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.49) and -37.98% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.03). Across its 52-week range of $3.57 to $9.25, XPOF sits at the 3.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($3.27 to $4.21).

XPOF Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does XPOF pay a dividend and is it safe?

Xponential Fitness Inc. (Class A) (XPOF) offers a 0% cash dividend yield ($0.00 annualized) and 1.8% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS.

Direct Sub-Reports: XPOF RQD Cockpit XPOF 12M Forecast XPOF Earnings & Move XPOF Dividends & DRIP XPOF Insiders & 13F XPOF Whale Options XPOF Profit Sankey XPOF News & Why