Stock Ratings / Health Care / XBIT / forecast

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XBiotech Inc. (XBIT) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$1.88 -3.09% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.87

XBiotech Inc. (XBIT) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 37/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $59.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on XBIT Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is XBIT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, XBiotech Inc. (NASDAQ: XBIT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $1.88 (-3.09% 1D, market cap $59.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, XBIT ranks #616 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does XBIT compare to VRCA and RFL in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), XBIT carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, VRCA (Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $58.8M) and RFL (Rafael Holdings Inc. (Class B)) posts a E grade (16/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $58.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, XBIT leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while XBIT leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for XBIT?

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Per XBIT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001626878), XBiotech Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$45.5M in net income, and -$40.2M in free cash flow against $150.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.87 (-0.75%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for XBIT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (37/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY XBIT SCORES 37/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (27% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 5% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 33.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$2.29-7.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$2.12-9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$1.93-2.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$1.88-8.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (45) → D- (37)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a XBIT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While XBIT currently carries a cautious 37/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.15) and Max Pain ($1.97) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.61.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $XBIT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “XBIT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 37%NO 63%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your XBIT Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $1.88: 5319.1 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $1.33

$7,074

$-2,926 (-29.3%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $1.70

$9,043

$-957 (-9.6%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $3.61

$19,202

+$9,202 (+92.0%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$2	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$3	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$2	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring XBIT)

✓Walkthrough of XBIT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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XBIT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -26.85%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $1.93H $1.98L $1.87C $1.88VOL 50.6K

RES: $2.28SUP: $1.79SMA50: $2.15SMA200: $2.32

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

XBIT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 XBIT Butterfly Map → + Track XBIT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on XBIT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for XBIT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for XBIT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (XBIT)

Health Care Rank #616 of 1016 ⚔️ VRCA vs XBIT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (XBIT vs. VRCA, RFL, APLM, BOLD)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, XBiotech Inc. (XBIT) ranks #616 by composite RQD confidence (37/100, grade D-) and #725 by equity capitalization ($59.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, XBIT leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while XBIT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. APLM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 62/100 (C) compared with XBIT at 37/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
XBIT ACTIVE XBiotech Inc.	D-	37/100	—	—	-35.0%	-3.09%	$59.1M	Benchmark Subject
VRCA Verrica Pharmaceuticals Inc.	D	44/100	—	—	-35.0%	-2.05%	$58.8M	/vrca-vs-xbit →
RFL Rafael Holdings Inc. (Class B)	E	16/100	—	—	-35.0%	-3.57%	$58.2M	/rfl-vs-xbit →
APLM Apollomics Inc. (Class A)	C	62/100	—	—	—	-0.53%	$60.2M	/aplm-vs-xbit →
BOLD Boundless Bio Inc.	D-	41/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.40%	$57.3M	/bold-vs-xbit →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001626878

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), XBiotech Inc. (XBIT) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$45.5M, operating cash flow of -$39.9M, and free cash flow of -$40.2M (-24.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, XBIT closed FY2025 with $150.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$45.5M	-$39.9M	-$40.2M	$150.1M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$38.5M	-$31.0M	-$32.3M	$199.1M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$24.6M	-$18.7M	-$18.7M	—	—

3. XBIT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is XBIT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does XBIT compare to VRCA and RFL in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for XBIT?

Where is XBIT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

XBIT last traded at $1.88 (-3.09% on volume of 50,564 shares), positioning the stock -12.56% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.15) and -18.97% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.32). Across its 52-week range of $1.80 to $3.44, XBIT sits at the 4.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.0% ($1.67 to $2.09).

XBIT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is XBIT's 12-month stock price target?

XBiotech Inc. (XBIT) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $1.7 (-9.6% from $1.88), with a bull-case target of $3.61 and a bear-case floor of $1.33.

Is XBIT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates XBIT D- (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 37/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: XBIT RQD Cockpit XBIT 12M Forecast XBIT Earnings & Move XBIT Dividends & DRIP XBIT Insiders & 13F XBIT Whale Options XBIT Profit Sankey XBIT News & Why