RISK WATCHChartMill • 4d ago
After-Hours Movers: LABT, NCPL Top Gainers; Fortinet, AUROW Top LosersAfter-hours movers: LABT gained 45.26% and NCPL rose 36.36%, while Fortinet fell 24.45% and AUROW dropped 22.99% after the latest U.S. session.
Why VRA Stock surged +4.08% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$6.64 +4.08% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.68
Vera Bradley Inc. (VRA) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID
Cap $190.5M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.68 (+0.54%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.8% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VRA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY VRA SCORES 43/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (28% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.21 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (26% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$5.14+13.8% Next Q
35
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$5.85+1.5% Next Q
38
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$5.94+11.8% Next Q
40
CurrentGrade D-$6.64-6.7% Hist 90D α
43
Trajectory: E (35) → D- (43)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VRA Turnaround Squeeze
While VRA currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.55) and Max Pain ($6.97) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $7.30.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VRA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “VRA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 30, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why VRA Stock surged +4.08% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Vera Bradley Inc. (VRA) surged +4.08% to $6.64, trading at 98% of its 52-week range ($1.39 – $6.75). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-22% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 98% of its 52-week range ($1.39 – $6.75) with RSI-14 at 77.8 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $6.64 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 46.4% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live VRA Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTYahoo • 9d ago
Does Beating The Market Prove Ralph Lauren Is A Great Company?For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
CATALYSTYahoo • 9d ago
Zacks.com featured highlights include Vince, Vera Bradley, Forum Energy, American Outdoor Brands and Swire PacificVNCE, VRA, FET, AOUT and SWRAY have posted recent price gains, with rising earnings estimates and strong projected growth drawing attention amid October volatility.
CATALYSTYahoo • 10d ago
5 Stocks With Recent Price Strength Amid a Volatile OctoberFive stocks showing recent price strength include VNCE, VRA, FET, AOUT and SWRAY, with strong momentum and improving earnings estimates.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 11d ago
Vera Bradley (VRA) Is a Great Choice for 'Trend' Investors, Here's WhyIf you are looking for stocks that are well positioned to maintain their recent uptrend, Vera Bradley (VRA) could be a great choice. It is one of the several stocks that passed through our "Recent Price Strength" screen.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VRA)
- ✓Walkthrough of VRA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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VRA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +61.56%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $6.56H $6.75L $6.30C $6.64VOL 485.8K
RES: $4.83SUP: $2.81SMA50: $4.55SMA200: $3.66
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
VRA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -15.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VRA today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VRA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VRA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VRA)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #781 of 1011
⚔️ SGC vs VRA Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (VRA vs. SGC, JILL, LANV, JRSH)
Industry: Apparel (27 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Vera Bradley Inc. (VRA) ranks #781 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #700 by equity capitalization ($190.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, JRSH leads on earnings valuation at 21.3x trailing P/E, while JILL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 26.3% ROIC and 68.7% gross margin. JILL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with VRA at 43/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRA
ACTIVE
Vera Bradley Inc. | D- | 43/100 | — | 46.4% | -22.3% | +4.08% | $190.5M | Benchmark Subject |
| SGC Superior Group of Companies Inc. | C+ | 68/100 | 28.7x | 37.6% | 3.6% | +0.96% | $201.2M | /sgc-vs-vra → |
| JILL J. Jill Inc. | B | 74/100 | — | 68.7% | 26.3% | +4.07% | $353.4M | /jill-vs-vra → |
| LANV Lanvin Group Holdings Limited | C | 64/100 | — | — | — | +1.69% | $101.2M | /lanv-vs-vra → |
| JRSH Jerash Holdings (US) Inc. | D | 50/100 | 21.3x | 16.1% | 9.6% | +2.01% | $77.3M | /jrsh-vs-vra → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-31 • CIK 0001495320In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31), Vera Bradley Inc. (VRA) reported GAAP revenue of $269.7M (-15.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $318.8M , and -29.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$47.8M, operating cash flow of -$10.0M, and free cash flow of -$13.3M (+45.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, VRA closed FY2025 with $234.0M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.21, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2026-01-31 | $269.7M | -$47.8M | -$10.0M | -$13.3M | $234.0M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2025-02-01 | $318.8M | -$62.2M | -$14.1M | -$24.5M | $306.7M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2024-02-03 | $383.7M | $7.8M | $48.0M | $48.0M | — | — |
3. VRA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs VRA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Vera Bradley Inc. (NASDAQ: VRA) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $6.64 (+4.08% 1D, market cap $190.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, VRA ranks #781 in composite RQD confidence.
How does VRA compare to SGC and JILL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Apparel), VRA carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 46.4%, and ROIC of -22.3%. By comparison, SGC (Superior Group of Companies Inc.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 28.7x, ROIC 3.6%, cap $201.2M) and JILL (J. Jill Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 26.3%, cap $353.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, JRSH leads on earnings multiple (21.3x) while JILL leads on capital efficiency (26.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VRA?
Per VRA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0001495320), Vera Bradley Inc. generated $269.7M in revenue (-15.4% YoY), -$47.8M in net income, and -$13.3M in free cash flow against $234.0M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is VRA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
VRA last traded at $6.64 (+4.08% on volume of 578,920 shares), positioning the stock +45.93% above its 50-day simple moving average ($4.55) and +81.42% above its 200-day simple moving average ($3.66). Across its 52-week range of $1.39 to $6.75, VRA sits at the 97.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 77.8 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($5.81 to $7.47).
VRA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is VRA stock moving today?
Why VRA Stock surged +4.08% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-22% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.