Stock Ratings / Technology / VELO / financials

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Velo3D Inc. (VELO) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$7.07 +1.14% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.07

Velo3D Inc. (VELO) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 42/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $227.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.07 (+0.02%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VELO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (42/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY VELO SCORES 42/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (31% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 12% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 33 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$8.67-21.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$6.80-2.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$6.64+6.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$7.07-7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (50) → D- (42)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VELO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While VELO currently carries a cautious 42/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($9.79) and Max Pain ($7.42) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $33.34.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VELO• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “VELO Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 42%NO 58%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How VELO Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $77.4M

FY24

Rev $41.0M

FY25

Rev $46.0M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$46.0M	-16.1%	-80%	-$71.4M	-$30.0M	-45%
FY 2024	$41.0M	-5.1%	-80%	-$69.7M	-$32.7M	-45%
FY 2023	$77.4M	8%	-80%	-$135.1M	-$105.6M	-35%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VELO)

✓Walkthrough of VELO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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VELO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -49.54%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $6.59H $7.07L $6.24C $7.07VOL 1.37M

RES: $6.90SUP: $4.50SMA50: $9.79SMA200: $13.42

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VELO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 VELO Butterfly Map → + Track VELO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +12.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VELO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VELO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VELO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VELO)

Technology Rank #521 of 714 ⚔️ ASYS vs VELO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (VELO vs. ASYS, SHMD, MPTI, ESP)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Velo3D Inc. (VELO) ranks #521 by composite RQD confidence (42/100, grade D-) and #468 by equity capitalization ($227.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ESP leads on earnings valuation at 20.7x trailing P/E, while MPTI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.2% ROIC and — gross margin. ESP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 77/100 (B+) compared with VELO at 42/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
VELO ACTIVE Velo3D Inc.	D-	42/100	—	-16.1%	-35.0%	+1.14%	$227.3M	Benchmark Subject
ASYS Amtech Systems Inc.	D	45/100	—	34.0%	-35.0%	-0.07%	$239.5M	/asys-vs-velo →
SHMD SCHMID Group N.V. (Class A)	D+	56/100	—	—	—	-4.19%	$186.5M	/shmd-vs-velo →
MPTI M-tron Industries Inc.	C+	66/100	35.5x	—	19.2%	-0.56%	$300.0M	/mpti-vs-velo →
ESP Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp.	B+	77/100	20.7x	28.9%	18.1%	+0.34%	$168.7M	/esp-vs-velo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001825079

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Velo3D Inc. (VELO) reported GAAP revenue of $46.0M (+12.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $41.0M , and -40.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$71.4M, operating cash flow of -$27.3M, and free cash flow of -$30.0M (+8.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, VELO closed FY2025 with $105.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$46.0M	-$71.4M	-$27.3M	-$30.0M	$105.3M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$41.0M	-$69.7M	-$32.7M	-$32.7M	$89.2M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$77.4M	-$135.1M	-$105.6M	-$105.6M	—	—

3. VELO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VELO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Velo3D Inc. (NASDAQ: VELO) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $7.07 (+1.14% 1D, market cap $227.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, VELO ranks #521 in composite RQD confidence.

How does VELO compare to ASYS and SHMD in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), VELO carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -16.1%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ASYS (Amtech Systems Inc.) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $239.5M) and SHMD (SCHMID Group N.V. (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $186.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ESP leads on earnings multiple (20.7x) while MPTI leads on capital efficiency (19.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VELO?

Per VELO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001825079), Velo3D Inc. generated $46.0M in revenue (+12.1% YoY), -$71.4M in net income, and -$30.0M in free cash flow against $105.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is VELO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VELO last traded at $7.07 (+1.14% on volume of 1,045,707 shares), positioning the stock -27.78% below its 50-day simple moving average ($9.79) and -47.32% below its 200-day simple moving average ($13.42). Across its 52-week range of $3.75 to $31.75, VELO sits at the 11.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($6.19 to $7.95).

VELO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Velo3D Inc. (VELO)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), VELO converted $46.0M of revenue into a 0% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: VELO RQD Cockpit VELO 12M Forecast VELO Earnings & Move VELO Dividends & DRIP VELO Insiders & 13F VELO Whale Options VELO Profit Sankey VELO News & Why