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Velo3D Inc. (VELO) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$7.07 +1.14% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.07

Velo3D Inc. (VELO) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 42/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $227.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.07 (+0.02%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VELO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (42/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY VELO SCORES 42/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (31% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 12% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 33 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$8.67-21.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$6.80-2.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$6.64+6.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$7.07-7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (50) → D- (42)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VELO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While VELO currently carries a cautious 42/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($9.79) and Max Pain ($7.42) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $33.34.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VELO• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “VELO Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 42%NO 58%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

3330 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

3 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE12% OF RANGE

L: $4$7.07H: $32

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 8 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 16 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on VELO

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (40)

-35.0% ROIC with -16.1% gross margin and -13.22% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (40)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 3/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (43)

16/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like VELO

✓Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VELO)

✓Walkthrough of VELO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

VELO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -49.54%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $6.59H $7.07L $6.24C $7.07VOL 1.37M

RES: $6.90SUP: $4.50SMA50: $9.79SMA200: $13.42

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VELO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 VELO Butterfly Map → + Track VELO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +12.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VELO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VELO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VELO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VELO)

Technology Rank #521 of 714 ⚔️ ASYS vs VELO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (VELO vs. ASYS, SHMD, MPTI, ESP)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Velo3D Inc. (VELO) ranks #521 by composite RQD confidence (42/100, grade D-) and #468 by equity capitalization ($227.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ESP leads on earnings valuation at 20.7x trailing P/E, while MPTI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.2% ROIC and — gross margin. ESP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 77/100 (B+) compared with VELO at 42/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
VELO ACTIVE Velo3D Inc.	D-	42/100	—	-16.1%	-35.0%	+1.14%	$227.3M	Benchmark Subject
ASYS Amtech Systems Inc.	D	45/100	—	34.0%	-35.0%	-0.07%	$239.5M	/asys-vs-velo →
SHMD SCHMID Group N.V. (Class A)	D+	56/100	—	—	—	-4.19%	$186.5M	/shmd-vs-velo →
MPTI M-tron Industries Inc.	C+	66/100	35.5x	—	19.2%	-0.56%	$300.0M	/mpti-vs-velo →
ESP Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp.	B+	77/100	20.7x	28.9%	18.1%	+0.34%	$168.7M	/esp-vs-velo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001825079

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Velo3D Inc. (VELO) reported GAAP revenue of $46.0M (+12.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $41.0M , and -40.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$71.4M, operating cash flow of -$27.3M, and free cash flow of -$30.0M (+8.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, VELO closed FY2025 with $105.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$46.0M	-$71.4M	-$27.3M	-$30.0M	$105.3M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$41.0M	-$69.7M	-$32.7M	-$32.7M	$89.2M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$77.4M	-$135.1M	-$105.6M	-$105.6M	—	—

3. VELO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VELO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Velo3D Inc. (NASDAQ: VELO) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $7.07 (+1.14% 1D, market cap $227.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, VELO ranks #521 in composite RQD confidence.

How does VELO compare to ASYS and SHMD in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), VELO carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -16.1%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ASYS (Amtech Systems Inc.) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $239.5M) and SHMD (SCHMID Group N.V. (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $186.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ESP leads on earnings multiple (20.7x) while MPTI leads on capital efficiency (19.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VELO?

Per VELO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001825079), Velo3D Inc. generated $46.0M in revenue (+12.1% YoY), -$71.4M in net income, and -$30.0M in free cash flow against $105.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is VELO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VELO last traded at $7.07 (+1.14% on volume of 1,045,707 shares), positioning the stock -27.78% below its 50-day simple moving average ($9.79) and -47.32% below its 200-day simple moving average ($13.42). Across its 52-week range of $3.75 to $31.75, VELO sits at the 11.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($6.19 to $7.95).

VELO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell VELO stock right now?

Velo3D Inc. (VELO) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 42/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is VELO's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

VELO's 12-month base price target is $6.56 (range $5.12 to $33.34), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: VELO RQD Cockpit VELO 12M Forecast VELO Earnings & Move VELO Dividends & DRIP VELO Insiders & 13F VELO Whale Options VELO Profit Sankey VELO News & Why