Stock Ratings / Technology / UMAC / forecast

BKSY (32) HLIT (56) GILT (59) SATL (23) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Unusual Machines Inc. (UMAC) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$17.28 -1.93% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.19

Unusual Machines Inc. (UMAC) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $863.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.19 (-0.54%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UMAC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (28/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY UMAC SCORES 28/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+7/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$20.83-21.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$16.31+4.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$17.02+1.5% Next Q

Current

Grade E$17.28-10% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (36) → E (28)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a UMAC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While UMAC currently carries a cautious 28/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($21.68) and Max Pain ($18.14) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $36.68.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UMAC• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “UMAC Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 28%NO 72%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your UMAC Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $17.28: 578.7 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $11.66

$6,748

$-3,252 (-32.5%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $14.95

$8,652

$-1,348 (-13.5%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $36.68

$21,227

+$11,227 (+112.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$16	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$34	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$13	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring UMAC)

✓Walkthrough of UMAC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

UMAC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +18.44%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $16.37H $17.28L $14.78C $17.28VOL 3.14M

RES: $35.53SUP: $15.43SMA50: $21.68SMA200: $19.20

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UMAC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 UMAC Butterfly Map → + Track UMAC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +101.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UMAC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UMAC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UMAC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UMAC)

Technology Rank #684 of 714 ⚔️ BKSY vs UMAC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (UMAC vs. BKSY, HLIT, GILT, SATL)

Industry: Radio And Television Broadcasting And Communications Equipment (21 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Unusual Machines Inc. (UMAC) ranks #684 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #364 by equity capitalization ($863.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GILT leads on earnings valuation at 29.3x trailing P/E, while GILT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 5.6% ROIC and 29.5% gross margin. GILT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with UMAC at 28/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
UMAC ACTIVE Unusual Machines Inc.	E	28/100	—	34.9%	-27.7%	-1.93%	$863.2M	Benchmark Subject
BKSY BlackSky Technology Inc. (Class A)	E	32/100	—	—	-15.1%	+0.47%	$785.8M	/bksy-vs-umac →
HLIT Harmonic Inc.	D+	56/100	—	48.5%	3.0%	+0.65%	$1.18B	/hlit-vs-umac →
GILT Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd.	C-	59/100	29.3x	29.5%	5.6%	+1.77%	$607.5M	/gilt-vs-umac →
SATL Satellogic Inc. (Class A)	E	23/100	—	—	-35.0%	-1.84%	$575.0M	/satl-vs-umac →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001956955

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Unusual Machines Inc. (UMAC) reported GAAP revenue of $11.2M (+101.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.6M ) , GAAP net income of -$19.2M, operating cash flow of -$21.2M, and free cash flow of -$23.2M (-481.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, UMAC closed FY2025 with $182.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$11.2M	-$19.2M	-$21.2M	-$23.2M	$182.7M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$5.6M	-$32.0M	-$4.0M	-$4.0M	$16.1M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$2.4M	-$1.8M	-$1.8M	—	—

3. UMAC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is UMAC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Unusual Machines Inc. (NYSE: UMAC) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $17.28 (-1.93% 1D, market cap $863.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, UMAC ranks #684 in composite RQD confidence.

How does UMAC compare to BKSY and HLIT in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Radio And Television Broadcasting And Communications Equipment), UMAC carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 34.9%, and ROIC of -27.7%. By comparison, BKSY (BlackSky Technology Inc. (Class A)) holds a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -15.1%, cap $785.8M) and HLIT (Harmonic Inc.) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.0%, cap $1.18B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GILT leads on earnings multiple (29.3x) while GILT leads on capital efficiency (5.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UMAC?

Per UMAC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001956955), Unusual Machines Inc. generated $11.2M in revenue (+101.2% YoY), -$19.2M in net income, and -$23.2M in free cash flow against $182.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is UMAC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UMAC last traded at $17.28 (-1.93% on volume of 1,705,404 shares), positioning the stock -20.30% below its 50-day simple moving average ($21.68) and -10.00% below its 200-day simple moving average ($19.20). Across its 52-week range of $7.25 to $34.93, UMAC sits at the 36.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 32.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($15.12 to $19.44).

UMAC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is UMAC's 12-month stock price target?

Unusual Machines Inc. (UMAC) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $14.95 (-13.5% from $17.28), with a bull-case target of $36.68 and a bear-case floor of $11.66.

Is UMAC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates UMAC E (Strong Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 28/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: UMAC RQD Cockpit UMAC 12M Forecast UMAC Earnings & Move UMAC Dividends & DRIP UMAC Insiders & 13F UMAC Whale Options UMAC Profit Sankey UMAC News & Why