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Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$10.80 +0.65% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.79

Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.18B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.79 (-0.07%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 26.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HLIT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HLIT SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$10.99-2.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$10.69-6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$10.05+7.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$10.80-0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (64) → D+ (56)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HLIT Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, HLIT faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 46.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.17) or 200D SMA ($11.59) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($10.70) toward Bear Floor ($8.35).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HLIT• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HLIT Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

42.130 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

0.20>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE25% OF RANGE

L: $8$10.80H: $18

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 24 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on HLIT

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (45)

3.0% ROIC with 48.5% gross margin and 8.23% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (60)

Altman-Z 0.20 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (58)

23/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like HLIT

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HLIT)

✓Walkthrough of HLIT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

HLIT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -5.51%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $10.45H $10.80L $10.10C $10.80VOL 1.33M

RES: $10.75SUP: $9.54SMA50: $11.17SMA200: $11.59

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HLIT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HLIT Butterfly Map → + Track HLIT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

42.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -26.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HLIT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HLIT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HLIT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HLIT)

Technology Rank #313 of 714 ⚔️ VISN vs HLIT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (HLIT vs. VISN, UMAC, BKSY, GILT)

Industry: Radio And Television Broadcasting And Communications Equipment (21 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) ranks #313 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #342 by equity capitalization ($1.18B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GILT leads on earnings valuation at 29.3x trailing P/E, while GILT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 5.6% ROIC and 29.5% gross margin. GILT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with HLIT at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HLIT ACTIVE Harmonic Inc.	D+	56/100	—	48.5%	3.0%	+0.65%	$1.18B	Benchmark Subject
VISN Vistance Networks Inc.	D	45/100	—	—	0.7%	+0.15%	$1.54B	/visn-vs-hlit →
UMAC Unusual Machines Inc.	E	28/100	—	34.9%	-27.7%	-1.93%	$863.2M	/umac-vs-hlit →
BKSY BlackSky Technology Inc. (Class A)	E	32/100	—	—	-15.1%	+0.47%	$785.8M	/bksy-vs-hlit →
GILT Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd.	C-	59/100	29.3x	29.5%	5.6%	+1.77%	$607.5M	/gilt-vs-hlit →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000851310

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) reported GAAP revenue of $360.5M (-26.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $488.2M , and -7.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.2M, operating cash flow of $108.0M, and free cash flow of $96.9M (+83.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, HLIT closed FY2025 with $718.5M in total assets against $109.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$360.5M	$1.2M	$108.0M	$96.9M	$718.5M	$109.1M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$488.2M	$39.2M	$61.9M	$52.7M	$796.5M	$112.1M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$388.5M	$84.0M	$7.1M	$7.1M	—	—

3. HLIT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HLIT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Harmonic Inc. (NASDAQ: HLIT) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $10.80 (+0.65% 1D, market cap $1.18B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, HLIT ranks #313 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HLIT compare to VISN and UMAC in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Radio And Television Broadcasting And Communications Equipment), HLIT carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 48.5%, and ROIC of 3.0%. By comparison, VISN (Vistance Networks Inc.) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.7%, cap $1.54B) and UMAC (Unusual Machines Inc.) posts a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -27.7%, cap $863.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GILT leads on earnings multiple (29.3x) while GILT leads on capital efficiency (5.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HLIT?

Per HLIT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000851310), Harmonic Inc. generated $360.5M in revenue (-26.2% YoY), $1.2M in net income, and $96.9M in free cash flow against $718.5M in total assets and $109.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HLIT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HLIT last traded at $10.80 (+0.65% on volume of 1,264,902 shares), positioning the stock -3.31% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.17) and -6.82% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.59). Across its 52-week range of $8.47 to $17.68, HLIT sits at the 25.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.7% ($9.86 to $11.74).

HLIT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell HLIT stock right now?

Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell — SELL) with 56/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (3% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is HLIT's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

HLIT's 12-month base price target is $10.7 (range $8.35 to $18.56), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: HLIT RQD Cockpit HLIT 12M Forecast HLIT Earnings & Move HLIT Dividends & DRIP HLIT Insiders & 13F HLIT Whale Options HLIT Profit Sankey HLIT News & Why