Why UBCP Stock dropped -3.02% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$14.16 -3.02% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.06

United Bancorp Inc. (UBCP) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $83.7M
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is UBCP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, United Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: UBCP) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $14.16 (-3.02% 1D, market cap $83.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, UBCP ranks #441 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does UBCP compare to ASRV and PBHC in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), UBCP carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.0%. By comparison, ASRV (AmeriServ Financial Inc.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 14.9x, ROIC 4.7%, cap $83.7M) and PBHC (Pathfinder Bancorp Inc. (MD)) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.6%, cap $81.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, UBCP leads on earnings multiple (10.8x) while UBCP leads on capital efficiency (11.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UBCP?
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Per UBCP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000731653), United Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $7.8M in net income, and -$1.3M in free cash flow against $857.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.06 (-0.73%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.32% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.5% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510060
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Cash (9)Whales (13)SEC (13)Macro (12)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target
$18 Bull$14 Base$11 Bear
📬 FREE UBCP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UBCP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY UBCP SCORES 60/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 11 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
68
Grade B-$14.66-8.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
65
Grade C+$13.40+2.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
63
Grade C+$13.73+3.1% Next Q
Current
60
Grade C-$14.16+0.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (68) → C- (60)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the UBCP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, UBCP faces multiple-compression risk if 10.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (-0.32% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($14.90) or 200D SMA ($15.27) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($14.29) toward Bear Floor ($11.15).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UBCP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “UBCP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why UBCP Stock dropped -3.02% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

United Bancorp Inc. (UBCP) dropped -3.02% to $14.16, trading at 34% of its 52-week range ($12.55 – $17.34). Solid steady margins (11% return on capital), mixed timing at 11x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 34% of its 52-week range ($12.55 – $17.34) with RSI-14 at 48.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.5% around $14.16 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C- (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live UBCP Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRETradingView • 15h ago
FSMK Stock Price and Chart — OTC:FSMK

TradingView report covering United Bancorp Inc. (UBCP) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (UBCP Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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UBCP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.61%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $14.44H $14.56L $14.16C $14.16VOL 9.5K
RES: $15.60SUP: $12.97SMA50: $14.90SMA200: $15.27
$16.98$15.99$14.99$14.00$13.00RES $15.60SUP $12.97$14.162026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UBCP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
0.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UBCP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UBCP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UBCP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UBCP)

Financials Rank #441 of 1096 ⚔️ ASRV vs UBCP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (UBCP vs. ASRV, PBHC, SSBI, AUBN)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, United Bancorp Inc. (UBCP) ranks #441 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #980 by equity capitalization ($83.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UBCP leads on earnings valuation at 10.8x trailing P/E, while UBCP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.0% ROIC and — gross margin. ASRV currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with UBCP at 60/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
UBCP ACTIVE
United Bancorp Inc.
C- 60/100 10.8x — 11.0% -3.02% $83.7M Benchmark Subject
ASRV
AmeriServ Financial Inc.
C 63/100 14.9x — 4.7% -0.41% $83.7M /asrv-vs-ubcp →
PBHC
Pathfinder Bancorp Inc. (MD)
D 51/100 — — -1.6% +1.68% $81.9M /pbhc-vs-ubcp →
SSBI
Summit State Bank
C- 59/100 — — — -2.97% $78.6M /ssbi-vs-ubcp →
AUBN
Auburn National Bancorporation Inc.
D+ 56/100 — — — 0.00% $89.6M /aubn-vs-ubcp →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000731653

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), United Bancorp Inc. (UBCP) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $7.8M, operating cash flow of $10.5M, and free cash flow of -$1.3M (-6.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, UBCP closed FY2025 with $857.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $0 $7.8M $10.5M -$1.3M $857.4M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $0 $7.4M $8.4M -$1.2M $816.7M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $0 $8.9M $9.5M $9.5M — —

3. UBCP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is UBCP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, United Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: UBCP) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $14.16 (-3.02% 1D, market cap $83.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, UBCP ranks #441 in composite RQD confidence.

How does UBCP compare to ASRV and PBHC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), UBCP carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.0%. By comparison, ASRV (AmeriServ Financial Inc.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 14.9x, ROIC 4.7%, cap $83.7M) and PBHC (Pathfinder Bancorp Inc. (MD)) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.6%, cap $81.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, UBCP leads on earnings multiple (10.8x) while UBCP leads on capital efficiency (11.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UBCP?

Per UBCP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000731653), United Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $7.8M in net income, and -$1.3M in free cash flow against $857.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is UBCP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UBCP last traded at $14.16 (-3.02% on volume of 9,507 shares), positioning the stock -4.97% below its 50-day simple moving average ($14.90) and -7.27% below its 200-day simple moving average ($15.27). Across its 52-week range of $12.55 to $17.34, UBCP sits at the 33.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.5% ($12.96 to $15.36).

UBCP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Why is UBCP stock moving today?

Why UBCP Stock dropped -3.02% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (11% return on capital), mixed timing at 11x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 60/100 (C-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

UBCP — United Bancorp Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:44:45Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, UBCP scores 60 out of 100, a letter grade of C-, with the verdict "Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 (ROIC 11%; FCF yield -1.58%), Whale 13F Flow at 13/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 13/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 12/20 (beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 4/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). For a prospective investor, the weakest pillar is the cash engine: the rating's own inputs show a negative FCF yield even while ROIC is 11%, so reported earnings are not translating into free cash flow on the figures provided. The forensic and insider/institutional pillars are mid-range rather than strong, and the macro pillar reflects a beta of 1.0. Upside drivers cited in the data are the 11% ROIC and the 6.55% dividend yield; the valuation tradeoff is a forward P/E of 10 set against a negative FCF yield. The rating is a cautious neutral, not a directional call.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$0.0M$0.0M$7.8MN/A$-1.3M$46.5MN/A
FY 2024$0.0M$0.0M$7.4MN/A$-1.2M$19.6MN/A
FY 2023$0.0M$0.0M$8.9MN/A$9.5MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, net income was $8.9M in FY 2023, $7.4M in FY 2024, and $7.8M in FY 2025, while free cash flow was $9.5M, $-1.2M, and $-1.3M over the same years. Per the market data, gross, operating, and net margins are each reported as 0%, so margin trends cannot be assessed from the source. ROIC is 11% and the FCF yield is -1.58%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Reported cash rose from $19.6M to $46.5M between FY 2024 and FY 2025.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

The news feed contains six items, all tagged to UBCP. Two items are flagged RED/RISK WATCH or YELLOW, as follows: an ad-hoc-news.de item headlined that Weiss cut the rating to Hold (RED, RISK WATCH), a second ad-hoc-news.de item headlined that Weiss lowered the rating to Hold (YELLOW), and four further items are YELLOW market-wire notices from Yahoo Finance UK, a siam.in price-move item, TradingView, and Stock Traders Daily. The price-move item cites shares at $13.73, up 1.55%. The summaries are generic and do not contain substantive fundamental detail. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists no supply chain (supply_chain: NONE), no butterfly links, and no proprietary signals.

Analyst View & Smart Money Ownership

Analyst data is NONE; no consensus rating or price targets are provided. Holders data is NONE; no SEC Form 4 insider, 13F whale, or Congressional trades are provided. The news feed references a rating change to Hold attributed to Weiss but does not provide a consensus or target.

Open Questions

  • What are the revenue and operating income figures, which are reported as $0.0M in every period?
  • Why does FCF turn negative in FY 2024 and FY 2025 when net income is positive?
  • What drives the EV/EBITDA and debt figures, which are not available or N/A in the source?
  • What is the basis for the Weiss rating change to Hold referenced in the news feed?
  • What are the company's products, customers, and revenue model?

UBCP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for United Bancorp Inc. (UBCP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to UBCP Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

UBCP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $14.16?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON UBCP 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on UBCP:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $15.29 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is UBCP (C- • RQD 60/100) a Buy at $14.16?

Welcome to the UBCP (United Bancorp Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 60/100 (Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral) in Major Banks. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $11.75 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $14.16

Pump the brakes on UBCP — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on UBCP, but look at what you are paying: 10.8x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless United Bancorp Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $16.99 (+20.0%)
Spot @ $14.16

UBCP cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on UBCP, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Major Banks and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $14.16 (52-wk range $12.55 - $17.34), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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