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Stock Ratings / Financials / UBCP / earnings
ASRV (63) PBHC (51) SSBI (59) AUBN (56) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

United Bancorp Inc. (UBCP) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±8.5% Move

$14.16 -3.02% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.06

United Bancorp Inc. (UBCP) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $83.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on UBCP Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is UBCP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, United Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: UBCP) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $14.16 (-3.02% 1D, market cap $83.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, UBCP ranks #441 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does UBCP compare to ASRV and PBHC in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), UBCP carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.0%. By comparison, ASRV (AmeriServ Financial Inc.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 14.9x, ROIC 4.7%, cap $83.7M) and PBHC (Pathfinder Bancorp Inc. (MD)) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.6%, cap $81.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, UBCP leads on earnings multiple (10.8x) while UBCP leads on capital efficiency (11.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UBCP?
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Per UBCP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000731653), United Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $7.8M in net income, and -$1.3M in free cash flow against $857.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.06 (-0.73%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.32% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.5% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510060
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Cash (9)Whales (13)SEC (13)Macro (12)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target
$18 Bull$14 Base$11 Bear
📬 FREE UBCP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UBCP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY UBCP SCORES 60/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 11 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
68
Grade B-$14.66-8.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
65
Grade C+$13.40+2.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
63
Grade C+$13.73+3.1% Next Q
Current
60
Grade C-$14.16+0.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (68) → C- (60)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the UBCP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, UBCP faces multiple-compression risk if 10.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (-0.32% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($14.90) or 200D SMA ($15.27) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($14.29) toward Bear Floor ($11.15).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UBCP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “UBCP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 60%NO 40%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±8.5% Swing Band

±$1.20 Expected Swing
$12.96 (-8.5%)Spot $14.16$15.36 (+8.5%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

UBCP Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 60/100

Trailing EPS: $1.35 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (60/100)Model Risk Weight (40/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$0$7.8M-$1.3M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$0$7.4M-$1.2M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$0$8.9M$9.5M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating UBCP & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on UBCP
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
UBCP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.61%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $14.44H $14.56L $14.16C $14.16VOL 9.5K
RES: $15.60SUP: $12.97SMA50: $14.90SMA200: $15.27
$16.98$15.99$14.99$14.00$13.00RES $15.60SUP $12.97$14.162026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UBCP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 UBCP Butterfly Map → + Track UBCP →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
0.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UBCP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UBCP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UBCP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UBCP)

Financials Rank #441 of 1096 ⚔️ ASRV vs UBCP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (UBCP vs. ASRV, PBHC, SSBI, AUBN)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, United Bancorp Inc. (UBCP) ranks #441 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #980 by equity capitalization ($83.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UBCP leads on earnings valuation at 10.8x trailing P/E, while UBCP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.0% ROIC and — gross margin. ASRV currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with UBCP at 60/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
UBCP ACTIVE
United Bancorp Inc.
C- 60/100 10.8x — 11.0% -3.02% $83.7M Benchmark Subject
ASRV
AmeriServ Financial Inc.
C 63/100 14.9x — 4.7% -0.41% $83.7M /asrv-vs-ubcp →
PBHC
Pathfinder Bancorp Inc. (MD)
D 51/100 — — -1.6% +1.68% $81.9M /pbhc-vs-ubcp →
SSBI
Summit State Bank
C- 59/100 — — — -2.97% $78.6M /ssbi-vs-ubcp →
AUBN
Auburn National Bancorporation Inc.
D+ 56/100 — — — 0.00% $89.6M /aubn-vs-ubcp →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000731653

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), United Bancorp Inc. (UBCP) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $7.8M, operating cash flow of $10.5M, and free cash flow of -$1.3M (-6.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, UBCP closed FY2025 with $857.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $0 $7.8M $10.5M -$1.3M $857.4M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $0 $7.4M $8.4M -$1.2M $816.7M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $0 $8.9M $9.5M $9.5M — —

3. UBCP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is UBCP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, United Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: UBCP) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $14.16 (-3.02% 1D, market cap $83.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, UBCP ranks #441 in composite RQD confidence.

How does UBCP compare to ASRV and PBHC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), UBCP carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.0%. By comparison, ASRV (AmeriServ Financial Inc.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 14.9x, ROIC 4.7%, cap $83.7M) and PBHC (Pathfinder Bancorp Inc. (MD)) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.6%, cap $81.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, UBCP leads on earnings multiple (10.8x) while UBCP leads on capital efficiency (11.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UBCP?

Per UBCP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000731653), United Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $7.8M in net income, and -$1.3M in free cash flow against $857.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is UBCP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UBCP last traded at $14.16 (-3.02% on volume of 9,507 shares), positioning the stock -4.97% below its 50-day simple moving average ($14.90) and -7.27% below its 200-day simple moving average ($15.27). Across its 52-week range of $12.55 to $17.34, UBCP sits at the 33.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.5% ($12.96 to $15.36).

UBCP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is UBCP's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, United Bancorp Inc. (UBCP)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is UBCP stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±8.5% event move for UBCP, spanning a range between $12.96 and $15.36.

Direct Sub-Reports: UBCP RQD Cockpit UBCP 12M Forecast UBCP Earnings & Move UBCP Dividends & DRIP UBCP Insiders & 13F UBCP Whale Options UBCP Profit Sankey UBCP News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 60/100 (C-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

UBCP — United Bancorp Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:44:45Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, UBCP scores 60 out of 100, a letter grade of C-, with the verdict "Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 (ROIC 11%; FCF yield -1.58%), Whale 13F Flow at 13/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 13/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 12/20 (beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 4/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). For a prospective investor, the weakest pillar is the cash engine: the rating's own inputs show a negative FCF yield even while ROIC is 11%, so reported earnings are not translating into free cash flow on the figures provided. The forensic and insider/institutional pillars are mid-range rather than strong, and the macro pillar reflects a beta of 1.0. Upside drivers cited in the data are the 11% ROIC and the 6.55% dividend yield; the valuation tradeoff is a forward P/E of 10 set against a negative FCF yield. The rating is a cautious neutral, not a directional call.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$0.0M$0.0M$7.8MN/A$-1.3M$46.5MN/A
FY 2024$0.0M$0.0M$7.4MN/A$-1.2M$19.6MN/A
FY 2023$0.0M$0.0M$8.9MN/A$9.5MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, net income was $8.9M in FY 2023, $7.4M in FY 2024, and $7.8M in FY 2025, while free cash flow was $9.5M, $-1.2M, and $-1.3M over the same years. Per the market data, gross, operating, and net margins are each reported as 0%, so margin trends cannot be assessed from the source. ROIC is 11% and the FCF yield is -1.58%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Reported cash rose from $19.6M to $46.5M between FY 2024 and FY 2025.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

The news feed contains six items, all tagged to UBCP. Two items are flagged RED/RISK WATCH or YELLOW, as follows: an ad-hoc-news.de item headlined that Weiss cut the rating to Hold (RED, RISK WATCH), a second ad-hoc-news.de item headlined that Weiss lowered the rating to Hold (YELLOW), and four further items are YELLOW market-wire notices from Yahoo Finance UK, a siam.in price-move item, TradingView, and Stock Traders Daily. The price-move item cites shares at $13.73, up 1.55%. The summaries are generic and do not contain substantive fundamental detail. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists no supply chain (supply_chain: NONE), no butterfly links, and no proprietary signals.

Analyst View & Smart Money Ownership

Analyst data is NONE; no consensus rating or price targets are provided. Holders data is NONE; no SEC Form 4 insider, 13F whale, or Congressional trades are provided. The news feed references a rating change to Hold attributed to Weiss but does not provide a consensus or target.

Open Questions

  • What are the revenue and operating income figures, which are reported as $0.0M in every period?
  • Why does FCF turn negative in FY 2024 and FY 2025 when net income is positive?
  • What drives the EV/EBITDA and debt figures, which are not available or N/A in the source?
  • What is the basis for the Weiss rating change to Hold referenced in the news feed?
  • What are the company's products, customers, and revenue model?

UBCP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for United Bancorp Inc. (UBCP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to UBCP Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

UBCP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $14.16?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON UBCP 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on UBCP:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $15.29 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is UBCP (C- • RQD 60/100) a Buy at $14.16?

Welcome to the UBCP (United Bancorp Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 60/100 (Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral) in Major Banks. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $11.75 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $14.16

Pump the brakes on UBCP — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on UBCP, but look at what you are paying: 10.8x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless United Bancorp Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $16.99 (+20.0%)
Spot @ $14.16

UBCP cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on UBCP, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Major Banks and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $14.16 (52-wk range $12.55 - $17.34), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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