MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why UAA Stock surged +5.46% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$5.02 +5.46% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.06
Under Armour Inc. (Class A) (UAA) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 37/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $2.16B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.06 (+0.79%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UAA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (37/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY UAA SCORES 37/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (32% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8.4% realized swing band)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (30% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 22% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 55.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$4.93-3.9% Next Q
29
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$4.74-1.5% Next Q
32
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$4.67+7.5% Next Q
34
CurrentGrade D-$5.02-8.1% Hist 90D α
37
Trajectory: E (29) → D- (37)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a UAA Turnaround Squeeze
While UAA currently carries a cautious 37/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.87) and Max Pain ($5.27) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.56.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UAA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “UAA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why UAA Stock surged +5.46% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Under Armour Inc. (Class A) (UAA) surged +5.46% to $5.02, trading at 22% of its 52-week range ($4.13 – $8.15). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-10% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 22% of its 52-week range ($4.13 – $8.15) with RSI-14 at 55.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.4% around $5.02 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 45.5% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live UAA Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring UAA)
- ✓Walkthrough of UAA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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UAA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -20.19%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $5.09H $5.15L $4.95C $5.02VOL 7.95M
RES: $8.84SUP: $3.55SMA50: $4.87SMA200: $5.94
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
UAA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -3.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UAA today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UAA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UAA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UAA)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #869 of 1011
⚔️ UA vs UAA Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (UAA vs. UA, CPRI, COLM, GIII)
Industry: Apparel (27 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Under Armour Inc. (Class A) (UAA) ranks #869 by composite RQD confidence (37/100, grade D-) and #407 by equity capitalization ($2.16B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, COLM leads on earnings valuation at 18.4x trailing P/E, while CPRI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.4% ROIC and 62.3% gross margin. GIII currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with UAA at 37/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAA
ACTIVE
Under Armour Inc. (Class A) | D- | 37/100 | — | 45.5% | -9.5% | +5.46% | $2.16B | Benchmark Subject |
| UA Under Armour Inc. (Class C) | D- | 36/100 | — | 45.5% | -9.5% | +5.86% | $2.10B | /ua-vs-uaa → |
| CPRI Capri Holdings Limited | D+ | 53/100 | 23.1x | 62.3% | 10.4% | +5.04% | $1.83B | /cpri-vs-uaa → |
| COLM Columbia Sportswear Company | C+ | 68/100 | 18.4x | 50.5% | 9.2% | +4.58% | $3.26B | /colm-vs-uaa → |
| GIII G-III Apparel Group LTD. | B | 73/100 | — | 39.4% | 6.3% | +3.80% | $1.30B | /giii-vs-uaa → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-03-31 • CIK 0001336917In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31), Under Armour Inc. (Class A) (UAA) reported GAAP revenue of $4.97B (-3.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.16B , and -12.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$495.6M, operating cash flow of -$75.1M, and free cash flow of -$162.2M (+28.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, UAA closed FY2025 with $4.63B in total assets against $390.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.67, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2026-03-31 | $4.97B | -$495.6M | -$75.1M | -$162.2M | $4.63B | $390.0M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2025-03-31 | $5.16B | -$201.3M | -$59.3M | -$228.0M | $4.63B | $595.2M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2024-03-31 | $5.70B | $232.0M | $354.0M | $354.0M | — | — |
3. UAA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs UAA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Under Armour Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: UAA) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $5.02 (+5.46% 1D, market cap $2.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, UAA ranks #869 in composite RQD confidence.
How does UAA compare to UA and CPRI in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Apparel), UAA carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 45.5%, and ROIC of -9.5%. By comparison, UA (Under Armour Inc. (Class C)) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -9.5%, cap $2.10B) and CPRI (Capri Holdings Limited) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 23.1x, ROIC 10.4%, cap $1.83B). Among the 5-stock peer group, COLM leads on earnings multiple (18.4x) while CPRI leads on capital efficiency (10.4% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UAA?
Per UAA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0001336917), Under Armour Inc. (Class A) generated $4.97B in revenue (-3.8% YoY), -$495.6M in net income, and -$162.2M in free cash flow against $4.63B in total assets and $390.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is UAA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
UAA last traded at $5.02 (+5.46% on volume of 7,319,351 shares), positioning the stock +3.08% above its 50-day simple moving average ($4.87) and -15.49% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.94). Across its 52-week range of $4.13 to $8.15, UAA sits at the 22.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.4% ($4.60 to $5.44).
UAA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is UAA stock moving today?
Why UAA Stock surged +5.46% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-10% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.