MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 13h ago
AI Cracks Fuel REIT ComebackThe Fed held rates steady following September's hike, with two dissenters favoring another increase. Check out the market update here.
Why TRTX Stock slipped -1.08% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$6.42 -1.08% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.40
TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. (TRTX) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $486.8M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.40 (-0.38%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 2.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.6% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TRTX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TRTX SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (25% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 22% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 56.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$5.87-1.4% Next Q
56
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$5.79+8.5% Next Q
59
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$6.28+2.2% Next Q
61
CurrentGrade C$6.42+1.1% Hist 90D α
64
Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TRTX Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 64/100 (C) score, TRTX faces multiple-compression risk if 8.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($6.78) or 200D SMA ($8.00) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($6.59) toward Bear Floor ($5.14).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TRTX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TRTX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why TRTX Stock slipped -1.08% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. (TRTX) slipped -1.08% to $6.42, trading at 22% of its 52-week range ($5.6 – $9.35). Solid steady margins (6% return on capital), mixed timing at 8x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 22% of its 52-week range ($5.6 – $9.35) with RSI-14 at 56.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.6% around $6.42 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $90.4M annual free cash flow.
Live TRTX Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 4d ago
TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation2026-10-28. The following slide deck was published by TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.
CATALYSTSeekingAlpha • 4d ago
Buy Any Of 23 LoPrice/HiYield Dividend Dogs For OctoberDividend-paying stocks, especially 'LoPrice/HiYield Dividend Dogs,' are positioned for strong total returns as market sentiment shifts from growth to income.
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 4d ago
Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on TPG RE Finance Trust, Lowers Price Target to $8Wells Fargo analyst Donald Fandetti maintains TPG RE Finance Trust (NYSE:TRTX) with a Overweight and lowers the price target from $9 to $8.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 4d ago
TPG RE Finance Trust (TRTX) Stock Can Q3 Earnings Rebuild Confidence?TPG RE Finance Trust came into this Q3 2026 report with a stock that had slid over the past quarter, yet it inched up about 0.8% to US$6.30 on the day the numbers hit. That modest uptick sits awkwardly against a quarter
MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 5d ago
TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (TRTX) Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptTPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (TRTX) Q3 2026 Earnings Call October 27, 2026 9:00 AM EDTCompany ParticipantsAshvin RaoDoug Bouquard - CEO & DirectorBrandon...
MARKET WIREYahoo • 5d ago
TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. Q3 2026 Earnings Call SummaryMoby summary of TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.'s Q3 2026 earnings call
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 5d ago
TPG RE Finance Trust Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptTPG RE Finance Trust (NYSE:TRTX) reported third-quarter financial results on Tuesday. The transcript from the company’s third-quarter earnings call has been provided below.This transcript is brought to you by Benzinga
MARKET WIREYahoo • 5d ago
TPG RE Finance Trust (TRTX) Reports Q3 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to SayAlthough the revenue and EPS for TPG RE Finance Trust (TRTX) give a sense of how its business performed in the quarter ended September 2026, it might be worth considering how some key metrics compare with Wall Street est
MARKET WIREFintel • 5d ago
TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results and Announces $50.0 Million Share Repurchase ProgramON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TRTX Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
TRTX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -24.11%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $6.46H $6.57L $6.40C $6.42VOL 1.97M
RES: $9.11SUP: $5.32SMA50: $6.78SMA200: $8.00
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
TRTX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-5.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TRTX today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TRTX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TRTX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TRTX)
Financials Rank #356 of 1096
⚔️ OLP vs TRTX Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TRTX vs. OLP, NXRT, ILPT, FBRT)
Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. (TRTX) ranks #356 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #711 by equity capitalization ($486.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FBRT leads on earnings valuation at 5.5x trailing P/E, while OLP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.3% ROIC and — gross margin. TRTX currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 64/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRTX
ACTIVE
TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. | C | 64/100 | 8.1x | — | 5.6% | -1.08% | $486.8M | Benchmark Subject |
| OLP One Liberty Properties Inc. | C | 63/100 | 19.3x | — | 13.3% | +2.13% | $491.9M | /olp-vs-trtx → |
| NXRT NexPoint Residential Trust Inc. | D+ | 52/100 | — | — | 7.8% | +2.75% | $468.1M | /nxrt-vs-trtx → |
| ILPT Industrial Logistics Properties Trust of | D+ | 54/100 | — | — | -13.5% | -4.90% | $467.5M | /ilpt-vs-trtx → |
| FBRT Franklin BSP Realty Trust Inc. | C | 63/100 | 5.5x | — | 5.8% | -2.84% | $466.1M | /fbrt-vs-trtx → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001630472In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. (TRTX) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $60.3M, operating cash flow of $90.4M, and free cash flow of $90.4M (-19.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, TRTX closed FY2025 with $4.41B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $60.3M | $90.4M | $90.4M | $4.41B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $74.3M | $112.1M | $112.1M | $3.73B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | -$116.6M | $80.1M | $80.1M | — | — |
3. TRTX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs TRTX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. (NYSE: TRTX) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $6.42 (-1.08% 1D, market cap $486.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TRTX ranks #356 in composite RQD confidence.
How does TRTX compare to OLP and NXRT in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), TRTX carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.6%. By comparison, OLP (One Liberty Properties Inc.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 19.3x, ROIC 13.3%, cap $491.9M) and NXRT (NexPoint Residential Trust Inc.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 7.8%, cap $468.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FBRT leads on earnings multiple (5.5x) while OLP leads on capital efficiency (13.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TRTX?
Per TRTX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001630472), TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $60.3M in net income, and $90.4M in free cash flow against $4.41B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is TRTX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
TRTX last traded at $6.42 (-1.08% on volume of 1,568,808 shares), positioning the stock -5.31% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.78) and -19.75% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.00). Across its 52-week range of $5.60 to $9.35, TRTX sits at the 21.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.6% ($5.93 to $6.91).
TRTX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is TRTX stock moving today?
Why TRTX Stock slipped -1.08% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (6% return on capital), mixed timing at 8x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.