Stock Ratings / Financials / TRTX / forecast

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TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. (TRTX) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$6.42 -1.08% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.40

TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. (TRTX) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $486.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.40 (-0.38%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 2.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TRTX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TRTX SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 22% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 56.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$5.87-1.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$5.79+8.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$6.28+2.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C$6.42+1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TRTX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, TRTX faces multiple-compression risk if 8.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($6.78) or 200D SMA ($8.00) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($6.59) toward Bear Floor ($5.14).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TRTX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TRTX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your TRTX Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $6.42: 1557.6 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $5.14

$8,006

$-1,994 (-19.9%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $6.59

$10,265

+$265 (+2.6%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $9.82

$15,296

+$5,296 (+53.0%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$7	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$9	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$6	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TRTX Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

TRTX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -24.11%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $6.46H $6.57L $6.40C $6.42VOL 1.97M

RES: $9.11SUP: $5.32SMA50: $6.78SMA200: $8.00

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TRTX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TRTX Butterfly Map → + Track TRTX →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-5.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TRTX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TRTX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TRTX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TRTX)

Financials Rank #356 of 1096 ⚔️ OLP vs TRTX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TRTX vs. OLP, NXRT, ILPT, FBRT)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. (TRTX) ranks #356 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #711 by equity capitalization ($486.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FBRT leads on earnings valuation at 5.5x trailing P/E, while OLP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.3% ROIC and — gross margin. TRTX currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TRTX ACTIVE TPG RE Finance Trust Inc.	C	64/100	8.1x	—	5.6%	-1.08%	$486.8M	Benchmark Subject
OLP One Liberty Properties Inc.	C	63/100	19.3x	—	13.3%	+2.13%	$491.9M	/olp-vs-trtx →
NXRT NexPoint Residential Trust Inc.	D+	52/100	—	—	7.8%	+2.75%	$468.1M	/nxrt-vs-trtx →
ILPT Industrial Logistics Properties Trust of	D+	54/100	—	—	-13.5%	-4.90%	$467.5M	/ilpt-vs-trtx →
FBRT Franklin BSP Realty Trust Inc.	C	63/100	5.5x	—	5.8%	-2.84%	$466.1M	/fbrt-vs-trtx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001630472

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. (TRTX) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $60.3M, operating cash flow of $90.4M, and free cash flow of $90.4M (-19.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, TRTX closed FY2025 with $4.41B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$60.3M	$90.4M	$90.4M	$4.41B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$74.3M	$112.1M	$112.1M	$3.73B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$116.6M	$80.1M	$80.1M	—	—

3. TRTX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TRTX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. (NYSE: TRTX) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $6.42 (-1.08% 1D, market cap $486.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TRTX ranks #356 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TRTX compare to OLP and NXRT in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), TRTX carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.6%. By comparison, OLP (One Liberty Properties Inc.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 19.3x, ROIC 13.3%, cap $491.9M) and NXRT (NexPoint Residential Trust Inc.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 7.8%, cap $468.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FBRT leads on earnings multiple (5.5x) while OLP leads on capital efficiency (13.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TRTX?

Per TRTX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001630472), TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $60.3M in net income, and $90.4M in free cash flow against $4.41B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TRTX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TRTX last traded at $6.42 (-1.08% on volume of 1,568,808 shares), positioning the stock -5.31% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.78) and -19.75% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.00). Across its 52-week range of $5.60 to $9.35, TRTX sits at the 21.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.6% ($5.93 to $6.91).

TRTX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is TRTX's 12-month stock price target?

TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. (TRTX) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $6.59 (+2.6% from $6.42), with a bull-case target of $9.82 and a bear-case floor of $5.14.

Is TRTX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates TRTX C (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 64/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: TRTX RQD Cockpit TRTX 12M Forecast TRTX Earnings & Move TRTX Dividends & DRIP TRTX Insiders & 13F TRTX Whale Options TRTX Profit Sankey TRTX News & Why