Stock Ratings / Industrials / TRN / forecast

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Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$28.32 +10.80% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.82

Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.26B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TRN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TRN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Trinity Industries Inc. (NYSE: TRN) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $28.32 (+10.80% 1D, market cap $2.26B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, TRN ranks #145 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TRN compare to GBX and FIP in the Industrials sector?

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Within the Industrials sector (Railroads), TRN carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 58.6%. By comparison, GBX (Greenbrier Companies Inc.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 5.9x, ROIC 24.1%, cap $1.19B) and FIP (FTAI Infrastructure Inc.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $339.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GBX leads on earnings multiple (5.9x) while TRN leads on capital efficiency (58.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TRN?

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Per TRN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000099780), Trinity Industries Inc. generated $2.16B in revenue (-30.0% YoY), $277.3M in net income, and $314.1M in free cash flow against $8.42B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.82 (+1.75%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 14.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TRN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TRN SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 14.6% FCF Margin ($314.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (60.8) create a -10 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$25.95-4.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$24.87+3.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$25.76+9.9% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$28.32+0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (51) → C- (59)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TRN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, TRN faces multiple-compression risk if 8.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($27.22) or 200D SMA ($31.42) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($28.45) toward Bear Floor ($22.19).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TRN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TRN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your TRN Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $28.32: 353.1 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $22.19

$7,835

$-2,165 (-21.6%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $28.45

$10,046

+$46 (+0.5%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $40.23

$14,206

+$4,206 (+42.1%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$30	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$38	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$25	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TRN Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

TRN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -18.24%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $25.56H $28.32L $25.56C $28.32VOL 1.60M

RES: $39.53SUP: $23.64SMA50: $27.22SMA200: $31.42

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TRN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TRN Butterfly Map → + Track TRN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-5.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -30.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TRN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TRN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TRN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TRN)

Industrials Rank #145 of 485 ⚔️ GBX vs TRN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (TRN vs. GBX, FIP, RAIL, WAB)

Industry: Railroads (11 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN) ranks #145 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #203 by equity capitalization ($2.26B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GBX leads on earnings valuation at 5.9x trailing P/E, while TRN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 58.6% ROIC and — gross margin. WAB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with TRN at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TRN ACTIVE Trinity Industries Inc.	C-	59/100	8.1x	—	58.6%	+10.80%	$2.26B	Benchmark Subject
GBX Greenbrier Companies Inc.	D+	56/100	5.9x	18.7%	24.1%	+2.80%	$1.19B	/gbx-vs-trn →
FIP FTAI Infrastructure Inc.	E	33/100	—	—	—	+2.13%	$339.2M	/fip-vs-trn →
RAIL FreightCar America Inc.	D-	37/100	—	14.6%	27.5%	-0.12%	$137.1M	/rail-vs-trn →
WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation	C	64/100	41.0x	34.1%	11.1%	+1.20%	$47.92B	/wab-vs-trn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000099780

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN) reported GAAP revenue of $2.16B (-30.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.08B , and -27.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $277.3M, operating cash flow of $359.7M, and free cash flow of $314.1M (-39.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, TRN closed FY2025 with $8.42B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.88, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.16B	$277.3M	$359.7M	$314.1M	$8.42B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$3.08B	$157.1M	$573.8M	$520.0M	$8.83B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$2.98B	$126.6M	$295.6M	$295.6M	—	—

3. TRN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TRN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does TRN compare to GBX and FIP in the Industrials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TRN?

Where is TRN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TRN last traded at $28.32 (+10.80% on volume of 1,601,114 shares), positioning the stock +4.04% above its 50-day simple moving average ($27.22) and -9.87% below its 200-day simple moving average ($31.42). Across its 52-week range of $24.28 to $38.31, TRN sits at the 28.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.5% ($26.20 to $30.44).

TRN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is TRN's 12-month stock price target?

Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $28.45 (+0.5% from $28.32), with a bull-case target of $40.23 and a bear-case floor of $22.19.

Is TRN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates TRN C- (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 59/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: TRN RQD Cockpit TRN 12M Forecast TRN Earnings & Move TRN Dividends & DRIP TRN Insiders & 13F TRN Whale Options TRN Profit Sankey TRN News & Why