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Why TRAX Stock slipped -1.08% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$45.23 -1.08% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.06
First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc. (TRAX) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $1.90B
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Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TRAX Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is TRAX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: TRAX) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $45.23 (-1.08% 1D, market cap $1.90B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, TRAX ranks #428 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does TRAX compare to ADRX and BRVE in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), TRAX carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ADRX (ADARx Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.91B) and BRVE (Braveheart Bio Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.91B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TRAX leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while MLYS leads on capital efficiency (-28.4% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TRAX?
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Per TRAX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002091349), First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$166.1M in net income, and -$143.0M in free cash flow against $330.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.06 (-0.38%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TRAX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TRAX SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (36% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (23% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$34.05+6.5% Next Q
36
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$36.28+19.8% Next Q
39
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$43.48+4% Next Q
41
CurrentGrade D$45.23-6.5% Hist 90D α
44
Trajectory: E (36) → D (44)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TRAX Turnaround Squeeze
While TRAX currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($38.96) and Max Pain ($47.49) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $52.41.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TRAX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TRAX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why TRAX Stock slipped -1.08% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc. (TRAX) slipped -1.08% to $45.23, trading at 87% of its 52-week range ($14.72 – $49.91). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 87% of its 52-week range ($14.72 – $49.91) with RSI-14 at 66.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $45.23 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live TRAX Headlines & Catalysts
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TRAX)
- ✓Walkthrough of TRAX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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TRAX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +120.10%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $45.72H $45.72L $45.23C $45.23VOL 471.7K
RES: $47.47SUP: $33.56SMA50: $38.96SMA200: $30.62
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
TRAX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TRAX today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TRAX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TRAX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TRAX)
Health Care Rank #428 of 1016
⚔️ ADRX vs TRAX Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TRAX vs. ADRX, BRVE, MLYS, ZBIO)
Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc. (TRAX) ranks #428 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #273 by equity capitalization ($1.90B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TRAX leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while MLYS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -28.4% ROIC and — gross margin. ADRX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 51/100 (D) compared with TRAX at 44/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRAX
ACTIVE
First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc. | D | 44/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -1.08% | $1.90B | Benchmark Subject |
| ADRX ADARx Pharmaceuticals Inc. | D | 51/100 | — | — | — | -0.56% | $1.91B | /adrx-vs-trax → |
| BRVE Braveheart Bio Inc. | D | 46/100 | — | — | — | -2.62% | $1.91B | /brve-vs-trax → |
| MLYS Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. | E | 34/100 | — | — | -28.4% | -0.65% | $1.88B | /mlys-vs-trax → |
| ZBIO Zenas BioPharma Inc. | D- | 40/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -0.04% | $1.87B | /zbio-vs-trax → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002091349In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc. (TRAX) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$166.1M, operating cash flow of -$142.9M, and free cash flow of -$143.0M (-13.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, TRAX closed FY2025 with $330.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | -$166.1M | -$142.9M | -$143.0M | $330.5M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | -$163.7M | -$125.8M | -$126.2M | $441.9M | — |
3. TRAX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs TRAX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-02, First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: TRAX) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $45.23 (-1.08% 1D, market cap $1.90B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, TRAX ranks #428 in composite RQD confidence.
How does TRAX compare to ADRX and BRVE in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), TRAX carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ADRX (ADARx Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.91B) and BRVE (Braveheart Bio Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.91B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TRAX leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while MLYS leads on capital efficiency (-28.4% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TRAX?
Per TRAX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002091349), First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$166.1M in net income, and -$143.0M in free cash flow against $330.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is TRAX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
TRAX last traded at $45.23 (-1.08% on volume of 471,708 shares), positioning the stock +16.09% above its 50-day simple moving average ($38.96) and +47.71% above its 200-day simple moving average ($30.62). Across its 52-week range of $14.72 to $49.91, TRAX sits at the 86.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($39.58 to $50.88).
TRAX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is TRAX stock moving today?
Why TRAX Stock slipped -1.08% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.