Stock Ratings / Health Care / TRAX / dividends

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First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc. (TRAX) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$45.23 -1.08% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.06

First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc. (TRAX) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 33/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (33/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $1.90B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.06 (-0.38%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (33/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-11.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TRAX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (33/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TRAX SCORES 33/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+8/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 87% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 65.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$31.85+8.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$34.46+27.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$44.05+2.7% Next Q

Current

Grade E$45.23-8.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (25) → E (33)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TRAX Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TRAX currently carries a cautious 33/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($38.92) and Max Pain ($47.49) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $52.41.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TRAX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TRAX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 33%NO 67%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD

0.6% Total Yield

0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 0.6% Buybacks

PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER

74/100 • REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS

FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO

0% (100% Reinvested)

Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases

INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (5.5% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $17,081

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $102/yr

Starting Investment: $10,000

Compounding Horizon: 10 Years

$10.6K

Yr 1

$11.1K

Yr 2

$11.7K

Yr 3

$12.4K

Yr 4

$13.1K

Yr 5

$13.8K

Yr 6

$14.5K

Yr 7

$15.3K

Yr 8

$16.2K

Yr 9

$17.1K

Yr 10

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TRAX)

✓Walkthrough of TRAX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

TRAX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +94.37%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $45.03H $45.87L $43.36C $45.23VOL 434.2K

RES: $50.77SUP: $33.36SMA50: $38.92SMA200: $30.52

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TRAX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TRAX Butterfly Map → + Track TRAX →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TRAX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TRAX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TRAX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TRAX)

Health Care Rank #857 of 1016 ⚔️ ADRX vs TRAX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TRAX vs. ADRX, BRVE, MLYS, ZBIO)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc. (TRAX) ranks #857 by composite RQD confidence (33/100, grade E) and #273 by equity capitalization ($1.90B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TRAX leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while MLYS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -28.4% ROIC and — gross margin. ADRX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with TRAX at 33/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TRAX ACTIVE First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc.	E	33/100	—	—	-35.0%	-1.08%	$1.90B	Benchmark Subject
ADRX ADARx Pharmaceuticals Inc.	D+	52/100	—	—	—	-0.56%	$1.91B	/adrx-vs-trax →
BRVE Braveheart Bio Inc.	D	47/100	—	—	—	-2.62%	$1.91B	/brve-vs-trax →
MLYS Mineralys Therapeutics Inc.	D-	43/100	—	—	-28.4%	-0.65%	$1.88B	/mlys-vs-trax →
ZBIO Zenas BioPharma Inc.	D-	39/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.04%	$1.87B	/zbio-vs-trax →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002091349

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc. (TRAX) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$166.1M, operating cash flow of -$142.9M, and free cash flow of -$143.0M (-13.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, TRAX closed FY2025 with $330.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$166.1M	-$142.9M	-$143.0M	$330.5M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$163.7M	-$125.8M	-$126.2M	$441.9M	—

3. TRAX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TRAX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: TRAX) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $45.23 (-1.08% 1D, market cap $1.90B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, TRAX ranks #857 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TRAX compare to ADRX and BRVE in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), TRAX carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ADRX (ADARx Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.91B) and BRVE (Braveheart Bio Inc.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.91B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TRAX leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while MLYS leads on capital efficiency (-28.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TRAX?

Per TRAX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002091349), First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$166.1M in net income, and -$143.0M in free cash flow against $330.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TRAX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TRAX last traded at $45.23 (-1.08% on volume of 471,708 shares), positioning the stock +16.21% above its 50-day simple moving average ($38.92) and +48.20% above its 200-day simple moving average ($30.52). Across its 52-week range of $14.72 to $49.91, TRAX sits at the 86.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 65.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($39.58 to $50.88).

TRAX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does TRAX pay a dividend and is it safe?

First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc. (TRAX) offers a 0% cash dividend yield ($0.00 annualized) and 0.6% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS.

Direct Sub-Reports: TRAX RQD Cockpit TRAX 12M Forecast TRAX Earnings & Move TRAX Dividends & DRIP TRAX Insiders & 13F TRAX Whale Options TRAX Profit Sankey TRAX News & Why