Stock Ratings / Financials / TMP / forecast

BHRB (61) WABC (63) LKFN (64) TFIN (48) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$101.64 +0.53% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $101.54

Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 61/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.46B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $101.55 (-0.09%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 42.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 61/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TMP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (61/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TMP SCORES 61/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 94% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 51.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 12 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$95.73+1.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$97.58+3.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$101.20+0.4% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$101.64+0.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → C- (61)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TMP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 61/100 (C-) score, TMP faces multiple-compression risk if 9.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($98.20) or 200D SMA ($89.09) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($103.01) toward Bear Floor ($80.35).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TMP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TMP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 61%NO 39%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your TMP Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $101.64: 98.4 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $80.35

$7,905

$-2,095 (-20.9%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $103.01

$10,135

+$135 (+1.3%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $121.55

$11,959

+$1,959 (+19.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$107	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$114	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$92	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TMP Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

TMP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +20.61%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $102.0H $102.4L $99.05C $101.6VOL 108.0K

RES: $104.3SUP: $94.26SMA50: $98.20SMA200: $89.09

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TMP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TMP Butterfly Map → + Track TMP →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-3.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -4.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TMP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TMP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TMP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TMP)

Financials Rank #462 of 1096 ⚔️ BHRB vs TMP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TMP vs. BHRB, WABC, LKFN, TFIN)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) ranks #462 by composite RQD confidence (61/100, grade C-) and #497 by equity capitalization ($1.46B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TMP leads on earnings valuation at 9.1x trailing P/E, while TMP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.2% ROIC and — gross margin. LKFN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with TMP at 61/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TMP ACTIVE Tompkins Financial Corporation	C-	61/100	9.1x	—	17.2%	+0.53%	$1.46B	Benchmark Subject
BHRB Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.	C-	61/100	12.2x	—	13.7%	+0.88%	$1.43B	/bhrb-vs-tmp →
WABC Westamerica Bancorporation	C	63/100	12.2x	—	12.4%	+0.79%	$1.42B	/wabc-vs-tmp →
LKFN Lakeland Financial Corporation	C	64/100	14.6x	—	13.6%	+1.03%	$1.51B	/lkfn-vs-tmp →
TFIN Triumph Financial Inc.	D	48/100	59.9x	—	2.7%	+0.84%	$1.52B	/tfin-vs-tmp →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001005817

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) reported GAAP revenue of $75.7M (-4.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $79.3M , and +1.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $161.1M, operating cash flow of $38.9M, and free cash flow of $31.9M (-64.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, TMP closed FY2025 with $8.67B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$75.7M	$161.1M	$38.9M	$31.9M	$8.67B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$79.3M	$70.8M	$95.0M	$88.8M	$8.11B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$75.0M	$9.5M	$89.0M	$89.0M	—	—

3. TMP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TMP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Tompkins Financial Corporation (NYSE: TMP) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 61/100 at a spot price of $101.64 (+0.53% 1D, market cap $1.46B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TMP ranks #462 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TMP compare to BHRB and WABC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), TMP carries a Roarable C- (61/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 17.2%. By comparison, BHRB (Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 13.7%, cap $1.43B) and WABC (Westamerica Bancorporation) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 12.4%, cap $1.42B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TMP leads on earnings multiple (9.1x) while TMP leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMP?

Per TMP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001005817), Tompkins Financial Corporation generated $75.7M in revenue (-4.5% YoY), $161.1M in net income, and $31.9M in free cash flow against $8.67B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TMP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TMP last traded at $101.64 (+0.53% on volume of 137,797 shares), positioning the stock +3.50% above its 50-day simple moving average ($98.20) and +14.09% above its 200-day simple moving average ($89.09). Across its 52-week range of $63.60 to $104.18, TMP sits at the 93.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.7% ($96.86 to $106.42).

TMP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is TMP's 12-month stock price target?

Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $103.01 (+1.3% from $101.64), with a bull-case target of $121.55 and a bear-case floor of $80.35.

Is TMP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates TMP C- (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 61/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: TMP RQD Cockpit TMP 12M Forecast TMP Earnings & Move TMP Dividends & DRIP TMP Insiders & 13F TMP Whale Options TMP Profit Sankey TMP News & Why