MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why TDAY Stock dropped -3.13% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$6.19 -3.13% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.14
USA TODAY Co. Inc. (TDAY) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $908.8M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.14 (-0.75%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 2.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TDAY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TDAY SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (26% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (24% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$6.82+2.2% Next Q
54
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$6.97-1.6% Next Q
51
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$6.86-9.8% Next Q
49
CurrentGrade D$6.19-6.1% Hist 90D α
46
Trajectory: C- (54) → D (46)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TDAY Turnaround Squeeze
While TDAY currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.62) and Max Pain ($6.50) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.67.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TDAY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TDAY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why TDAY Stock dropped -3.13% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
USA TODAY Co. Inc. (TDAY) dropped -3.13% to $6.19, trading at 38% of its 52-week range ($4.33 – $9.21). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (1% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 38% of its 52-week range ($4.33 – $9.21) with RSI-14 at 34.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.6% around $6.19 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 38.7% gross margin and $62.9M annual free cash flow.
Live TDAY Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TDAY)
- ✓Walkthrough of TDAY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TDAY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -14.38%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $6.12H $6.22L $5.97C $6.19VOL 2.92M
RES: $10.59SUP: $5.02SMA50: $6.62SMA200: $7.06
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
TDAY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -8.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TDAY today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TDAY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TDAY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TDAY)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #730 of 1011
⚔️ DJCO vs TDAY Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TDAY vs. DJCO, LEE, NYT, NWSA)
Industry: Newspapers/Magazines (7 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, USA TODAY Co. Inc. (TDAY) ranks #730 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #524 by equity capitalization ($908.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DJCO leads on earnings valuation at 7.7x trailing P/E, while NWSA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.9% ROIC and — gross margin. NYT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with TDAY at 46/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TDAY
ACTIVE
USA TODAY Co. Inc. | D | 46/100 | — | 38.7% | 1.1% | -3.13% | $908.8M | Benchmark Subject |
| DJCO Daily Journal Corp. (S.C.) | D+ | 57/100 | 7.7x | — | 2.1% | +2.62% | $866.3M | /djco-vs-tday → |
| LEE Lee Enterprises Incorporated | D- | 36/100 | — | — | -0.9% | -2.81% | $138.7M | /lee-vs-tday → |
| NYT New York Times Company | B | 72/100 | 32.4x | — | 14.3% | +0.35% | $11.14B | /nyt-vs-tday → |
| NWSA News Corporation (Class A) | B- | 70/100 | 11.9x | — | 14.9% | +0.48% | $15.92B | /nwsa-vs-tday → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001579684In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), USA TODAY Co. Inc. (TDAY) reported GAAP revenue of $2.30B (-8.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.51B , and -13.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.7M, operating cash flow of $114.4M, and free cash flow of $62.9M (+23.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, TDAY closed FY2025 with $1.84B in total assets against $884.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $2.30B | $1.7M | $114.4M | $62.9M | $1.84B | $884.9M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $2.51B | -$26.4M | $100.3M | $50.8M | $2.04B | $1.01B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $2.66B | -$27.8M | $94.6M | $94.6M | — | — |
3. TDAY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs TDAY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, USA TODAY Co. Inc. (NYSE: TDAY) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $6.19 (-3.13% 1D, market cap $908.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TDAY ranks #730 in composite RQD confidence.
How does TDAY compare to DJCO and LEE in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Newspapers/Magazines), TDAY carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 38.7%, and ROIC of 1.1%. By comparison, DJCO (Daily Journal Corp. (S.C.)) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 7.7x, ROIC 2.1%, cap $866.3M) and LEE (Lee Enterprises Incorporated) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.9%, cap $138.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, DJCO leads on earnings multiple (7.7x) while NWSA leads on capital efficiency (14.9% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TDAY?
Per TDAY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001579684), USA TODAY Co. Inc. generated $2.30B in revenue (-8.3% YoY), $1.7M in net income, and $62.9M in free cash flow against $1.84B in total assets and $884.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is TDAY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
TDAY last traded at $6.19 (-3.13% on volume of 4,057,645 shares), positioning the stock -6.50% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.62) and -12.32% below its 200-day simple moving average ($7.06). Across its 52-week range of $4.33 to $9.21, TDAY sits at the 38.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.6% ($5.66 to $6.72).
TDAY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is TDAY stock moving today?
Why TDAY Stock dropped -3.13% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (1% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.