Stock Ratings / Industrials / SWBI / options

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Smith & Wesson Brands Inc. (SWBI) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$13.66 -1.66% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.59

Smith & Wesson Brands Inc. (SWBI) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $735.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.59 (-0.49%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 17.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SWBI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SWBI SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 5.08 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 17.3% FCF Margin ($90.4M FCF) & 26.9% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B+$13.98+1.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$14.14-3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$13.71-0.4% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$13.66+1.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B+ (75) → C+ (67)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SWBI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, SWBI faces multiple-compression risk if 39.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 40x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 24.4% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($13.78) or 200D SMA ($13.99) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($14.21) toward Bear Floor ($11.08).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SWBI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SWBI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 28, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 67%NO 33%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±6.8%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (SWBI)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for SWBI.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating SWBI & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on SWBI
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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SWBI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.10%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $13.56H $13.67L $13.13C $13.66VOL 569.6K

RES: $15.24SUP: $11.06SMA50: $13.78SMA200: $13.99

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SWBI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SWBI Butterfly Map → + Track SWBI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

30.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +10.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SWBI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SWBI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SWBI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SWBI)

Industrials Rank #95 of 485 ⚔️ RGR vs SWBI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (SWBI vs. RGR, NPK, POWW, WRAP)

Industry: Ordnance And Accessories (7 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Smith & Wesson Brands Inc. (SWBI) ranks #95 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #275 by equity capitalization ($735.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NPK leads on earnings valuation at 32.7x trailing P/E, while NPK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 8.1% ROIC and 16.0% gross margin. SWBI currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SWBI ACTIVE Smith & Wesson Brands Inc.	C+	67/100	39.8x	26.9%	6.7%	-1.66%	$735.4M	Benchmark Subject
RGR Sturm Ruger & Company Inc.	D	49/100	—	14.9%	-3.7%	-1.31%	$731.5M	/rgr-vs-swbi →
NPK National Presto Industries Inc.	D+	53/100	32.7x	16.0%	8.1%	+0.66%	$1.08B	/npk-vs-swbi →
POWW Outdoor Holding Company	D-	37/100	—	87.2%	-3.0%	-0.42%	$276.2M	/poww-vs-swbi →
WRAP Wrap Technologies Inc.	E	31/100	—	57.8%	-35.0%	-0.81%	$76.3M	/wrap-vs-swbi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-04-30 • CIK 0001092796

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-04-30), Smith & Wesson Brands Inc. (SWBI) reported GAAP revenue of $523.8M (+10.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $474.7M , and -2.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $18.5M, operating cash flow of $114.2M, and free cash flow of $90.4M (+413.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, SWBI closed FY2025 with $538.0M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.08, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-04-30	$523.8M	$18.5M	$114.2M	$90.4M	$538.0M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2025-04-30	$474.7M	$13.4M	-$7.2M	-$28.8M	$578.9M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2024-04-30	$535.8M	$41.4M	$106.7M	$106.7M	—	—

3. SWBI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SWBI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Smith & Wesson Brands Inc. (NASDAQ: SWBI) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $13.66 (-1.66% 1D, market cap $735.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, SWBI ranks #95 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SWBI compare to RGR and NPK in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Ordnance And Accessories), SWBI carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 39.8x, gross margin of 26.9%, and ROIC of 6.7%. By comparison, RGR (Sturm Ruger & Company Inc.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -3.7%, cap $731.5M) and NPK (National Presto Industries Inc.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 32.7x, ROIC 8.1%, cap $1.08B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NPK leads on earnings multiple (32.7x) while NPK leads on capital efficiency (8.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SWBI?

Per SWBI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-04-30, CIK 0001092796), Smith & Wesson Brands Inc. generated $523.8M in revenue (+10.4% YoY), $18.5M in net income, and $90.4M in free cash flow against $538.0M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (27% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 40x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SWBI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SWBI last traded at $13.66 (-1.66% on volume of 458,292 shares), positioning the stock -0.87% below its 50-day simple moving average ($13.78) and -2.36% below its 200-day simple moving average ($13.99). Across its 52-week range of $8.14 to $17.56, SWBI sits at the 58.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.8% ($12.73 to $14.59).

SWBI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is SWBI's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for SWBI.

Direct Sub-Reports: SWBI RQD Cockpit SWBI 12M Forecast SWBI Earnings & Move SWBI Dividends & DRIP SWBI Insiders & 13F SWBI Whale Options SWBI Profit Sankey SWBI News & Why