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Stoke Therapeutics Inc. (STOK) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$26.35 -0.23% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $26.29

Stoke Therapeutics Inc. (STOK) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.70B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $26.29 (-0.23%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 24.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for STOK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY STOK SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 14.79 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 24.4% FCF Margin ($44.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 13 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$24.74-2.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$24.17+3.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$25.04+5.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$26.35+0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (51) → C- (59)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the STOK Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, STOK faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($27.43) or 200D SMA ($30.92) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($26.47) toward Bear Floor ($20.65).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $STOK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “STOK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your STOK Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $26.35: 379.5 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $20.65

$7,837

$-2,163 (-21.6%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $26.47

$10,046

+$46 (+0.5%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $42.23

$16,027

+$6,027 (+60.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$28	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$40	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$24	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (STOK Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

STOK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -19.47%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $26.04H $26.72L $25.76C $26.35VOL 1.86M

RES: $33.15SUP: $21.01SMA50: $27.43SMA200: $30.92

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

STOK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 STOK Butterfly Map → + Track STOK →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on STOK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for STOK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for STOK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (STOK)

Health Care Rank #213 of 1016 ⚔️ CMPS vs STOK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (STOK vs. CMPS, NBTX, ANIP, NUVB)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Stoke Therapeutics Inc. (STOK) ranks #213 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #287 by equity capitalization ($1.70B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ANIP leads on earnings valuation at 21.5x trailing P/E, while ANIP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.0% ROIC and — gross margin. ANIP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with STOK at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
STOK ACTIVE Stoke Therapeutics Inc.	C-	59/100	—	—	-6.1%	-0.23%	$1.70B	Benchmark Subject
CMPS COMPASS Pathways Plc American Depository Shares	D-	37/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.73%	$1.69B	/cmps-vs-stok →
NBTX Nanobiotix S.A.	D+	52/100	—	—	—	-0.53%	$1.72B	/nbtx-vs-stok →
ANIP ANI Pharmaceuticals Inc.	B-	70/100	21.5x	—	16.0%	+2.02%	$1.68B	/anip-vs-stok →
NUVB Nuvation Bio Inc. (Class A)	E	29/100	—	—	-35.0%	+3.92%	$1.67B	/nuvb-vs-stok →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001623526

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Stoke Therapeutics Inc. (STOK) reported GAAP revenue of $184.4M (+404.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $36.6M , and +2000.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$6.9M, operating cash flow of $45.6M, and free cash flow of $44.9M (+151.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, STOK closed FY2025 with $418.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 14.79, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$184.4M	-$6.9M	$45.6M	$44.9M	$418.4M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$36.6M	-$89.0M	-$86.9M	-$87.1M	$271.6M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$8.8M	-$104.7M	-$81.1M	-$81.1M	—	—

3. STOK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is STOK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Stoke Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: STOK) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $26.35 (-0.23% 1D, market cap $1.70B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, STOK ranks #213 in composite RQD confidence.

How does STOK compare to CMPS and NBTX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), STOK carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -6.1%. By comparison, CMPS (COMPASS Pathways Plc American Depository Shares) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.69B) and NBTX (Nanobiotix S.A.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.72B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ANIP leads on earnings multiple (21.5x) while ANIP leads on capital efficiency (16.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for STOK?

Per STOK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001623526), Stoke Therapeutics Inc. generated $184.4M in revenue (+404.5% YoY), -$6.9M in net income, and $44.9M in free cash flow against $418.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is STOK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

STOK last traded at $26.35 (-0.23% on volume of 1,879,654 shares), positioning the stock -3.94% below its 50-day simple moving average ($27.43) and -14.78% below its 200-day simple moving average ($30.92). Across its 52-week range of $20.32 to $40.22, STOK sits at the 30.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.1% ($23.43 to $29.27).

STOK Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is STOK's 12-month stock price target?

Stoke Therapeutics Inc. (STOK) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $26.47 (+0.5% from $26.35), with a bull-case target of $42.23 and a bear-case floor of $20.65.

Is STOK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates STOK C- (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 59/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: STOK RQD Cockpit STOK 12M Forecast STOK Earnings & Move STOK Dividends & DRIP STOK Insiders & 13F STOK Whale Options STOK Profit Sankey STOK News & Why