Stock Ratings / Health Care / STOK / earnings

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Stoke Therapeutics Inc. (STOK) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±11.1% Move

$26.35 -0.23% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $26.29

Stoke Therapeutics Inc. (STOK) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.70B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $26.29 (-0.23%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 24.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for STOK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY STOK SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 14.79 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 24.4% FCF Margin ($44.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 13 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$24.74-2.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$24.17+3.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$25.04+5.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$26.35+0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (51) → C- (59)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the STOK Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, STOK faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($27.43) or 200D SMA ($30.92) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($26.47) toward Bear Floor ($20.65).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $STOK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “STOK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±11.1% Swing Band

±$2.92 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

STOK Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 59/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 180%

Model Bullish Setup (59/100)Model Risk Weight (41/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$184.4M	-$6.9M	$44.9M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$36.6M	-$89.0M	-$87.1M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$8.8M	-$104.7M	-$81.1M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating STOK & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on STOK
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

STOK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -19.47%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $26.04H $26.72L $25.76C $26.35VOL 1.86M

RES: $33.15SUP: $21.01SMA50: $27.43SMA200: $30.92

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

STOK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 STOK Butterfly Map → + Track STOK →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on STOK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for STOK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for STOK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (STOK)

Health Care Rank #213 of 1016 ⚔️ CMPS vs STOK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (STOK vs. CMPS, NBTX, ANIP, NUVB)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Stoke Therapeutics Inc. (STOK) ranks #213 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #287 by equity capitalization ($1.70B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ANIP leads on earnings valuation at 21.5x trailing P/E, while ANIP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.0% ROIC and — gross margin. ANIP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with STOK at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
STOK ACTIVE Stoke Therapeutics Inc.	C-	59/100	—	—	-6.1%	-0.23%	$1.70B	Benchmark Subject
CMPS COMPASS Pathways Plc American Depository Shares	D-	37/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.73%	$1.69B	/cmps-vs-stok →
NBTX Nanobiotix S.A.	D+	52/100	—	—	—	-0.53%	$1.72B	/nbtx-vs-stok →
ANIP ANI Pharmaceuticals Inc.	B-	70/100	21.5x	—	16.0%	+2.02%	$1.68B	/anip-vs-stok →
NUVB Nuvation Bio Inc. (Class A)	E	29/100	—	—	-35.0%	+3.92%	$1.67B	/nuvb-vs-stok →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001623526

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Stoke Therapeutics Inc. (STOK) reported GAAP revenue of $184.4M (+404.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $36.6M , and +2000.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$6.9M, operating cash flow of $45.6M, and free cash flow of $44.9M (+151.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, STOK closed FY2025 with $418.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 14.79, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$184.4M	-$6.9M	$45.6M	$44.9M	$418.4M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$36.6M	-$89.0M	-$86.9M	-$87.1M	$271.6M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$8.8M	-$104.7M	-$81.1M	-$81.1M	—	—

3. STOK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is STOK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Stoke Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: STOK) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $26.35 (-0.23% 1D, market cap $1.70B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, STOK ranks #213 in composite RQD confidence.

How does STOK compare to CMPS and NBTX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), STOK carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -6.1%. By comparison, CMPS (COMPASS Pathways Plc American Depository Shares) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.69B) and NBTX (Nanobiotix S.A.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.72B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ANIP leads on earnings multiple (21.5x) while ANIP leads on capital efficiency (16.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for STOK?

Per STOK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001623526), Stoke Therapeutics Inc. generated $184.4M in revenue (+404.5% YoY), -$6.9M in net income, and $44.9M in free cash flow against $418.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is STOK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

STOK last traded at $26.35 (-0.23% on volume of 1,879,654 shares), positioning the stock -3.94% below its 50-day simple moving average ($27.43) and -14.78% below its 200-day simple moving average ($30.92). Across its 52-week range of $20.32 to $40.22, STOK sits at the 30.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.1% ($23.43 to $29.27).

STOK Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is STOK's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Stoke Therapeutics Inc. (STOK)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is STOK stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±11.1% event move for STOK, spanning a range between $23.43 and $29.27.

Direct Sub-Reports: STOK RQD Cockpit STOK 12M Forecast STOK Earnings & Move STOK Dividends & DRIP STOK Insiders & 13F STOK Whale Options STOK Profit Sankey STOK News & Why