MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why SPWH Stock slipped -0.93% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$1.07 -0.93% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.07
Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc. (SPWH) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 42/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID
Cap $41.9M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.07 (-0.36%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SPWH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (42/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SPWH SCORES 42/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (29% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 3% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 43 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+9/20 pts (21% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 45% Net Buy • Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$1.10-4.5% Next Q
50
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$1.05+1.9% Next Q
47
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$1.07+0% Next Q
45
CurrentGrade D-$1.07-7% Hist 90D α
42
Trajectory: C- (50) → D- (42)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SPWH Turnaround Squeeze
While SPWH currently carries a cautious 42/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.15) and Max Pain ($1.12) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $2.69.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SPWH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SPWH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 30, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why SPWH Stock slipped -0.93% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc. (SPWH) slipped -0.93% to $1.07, trading at 3% of its 52-week range ($1.03 – $2.56). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-13% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 3% of its 52-week range ($1.03 – $2.56) with RSI-14 at 43 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.3% around $1.07 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 30.9% gross margin and $8.9M annual free cash flow.
Live SPWH Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SPWH)
- ✓Walkthrough of SPWH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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SPWH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -24.11%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-10-30O $1.07H $1.07L $1.04C $1.07VOL 94.9K
RES: $1.33SUP: $1.02SMA50: $1.15SMA200: $1.27
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
SPWH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +1.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SPWH today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SPWH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SPWH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SPWH)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #796 of 1011
⚔️ WSHP vs SPWH Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (SPWH vs. WSHP, PEW, NAAS, BARK)
Industry: Other Specialty Stores (42 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc. (SPWH) ranks #796 by composite RQD confidence (42/100, grade D-) and #831 by equity capitalization ($41.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SPWH leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while SPWH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -12.8% ROIC and 30.9% gross margin. NAAS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with SPWH at 42/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPWH
ACTIVE
Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc. | D- | 42/100 | — | 30.9% | -12.8% | -0.93% | $41.9M | Benchmark Subject |
| WSHP WeShop Holdings Limited (Class A) | D | 49/100 | — | — | — | -2.05% | $57.9M | /wshp-vs-spwh → |
| PEW GrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc. | D- | 39/100 | — | 11.7% | -35.0% | 0.00% | $58.7M | /pew-vs-spwh → |
| NAAS NaaS Technology Inc. | C | 63/100 | — | — | — | +14.39% | $59.6M | /naas-vs-spwh → |
| BARK BARK Inc. (Class A) | E | 29/100 | — | 61.3% | -35.0% | 0.00% | $73.4M | /bark-vs-spwh → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-31 • CIK 0001132105In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31), Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc. (SPWH) reported GAAP revenue of $1.21B (+1.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.20B , and -6.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$50.1M, operating cash flow of $31.3M, and free cash flow of $8.9M (-54.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, SPWH closed FY2025 with $762.6M in total assets against $44.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.79, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2026-01-31 | $1.21B | -$50.1M | $31.3M | $8.9M | $762.6M | $44.2M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2025-02-01 | $1.20B | -$33.1M | $34.1M | $19.6M | $852.1M | $24.1M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2024-02-03 | $1.29B | -$29.0M | $52.3M | $52.3M | — | — |
3. SPWH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs SPWH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: SPWH) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $1.07 (-0.93% 1D, market cap $41.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SPWH ranks #796 in composite RQD confidence.
How does SPWH compare to WSHP and PEW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Other Specialty Stores), SPWH carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 30.9%, and ROIC of -12.8%. By comparison, WSHP (WeShop Holdings Limited (Class A)) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $57.9M) and PEW (GrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc.) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $58.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SPWH leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while SPWH leads on capital efficiency (-12.8% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SPWH?
Per SPWH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0001132105), Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc. generated $1.21B in revenue (+1.0% YoY), -$50.1M in net income, and $8.9M in free cash flow against $762.6M in total assets and $44.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is SPWH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
SPWH last traded at $1.07 (-0.93% on volume of 388,253 shares), positioning the stock -6.96% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.15) and -15.75% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.27). Across its 52-week range of $1.03 to $2.56, SPWH sits at the 2.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.3% ($1.00 to $1.16).
SPWH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is SPWH stock moving today?
Why SPWH Stock slipped -0.93% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-13% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.