Stock Ratings / Technology / SPSC / earnings

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SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7.6% Move

$85.78 +0.22% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $86.02

SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 74/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (69% profit margin, 11% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 74/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.4% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $3.09B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $86.02 (+0.28%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 20.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 74/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.4% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk B+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SPSC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (74/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SPSC SCORES 74/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 11.13 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 20.3% FCF Margin ($152.3M FCF) & 69.2% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution14/20 pts (-6 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 6 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$84.59+0.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$85.25+8.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$92.63-7.4% Next Q

Current

Grade B$85.78+7.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (66) → B (74)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SPSC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 74/100 (B) score, SPSC faces multiple-compression risk if 33.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 66.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($83.38) or 200D SMA ($68.08) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($91.96) toward Bear Floor ($70.34).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SPSC• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SPSC Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 74%NO 26%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±7.6% Swing Band

±$6.52 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

SPSC Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 74/100

Trailing EPS: $2.59 • YoY Revenue Growth: 17.8%

Model Bullish Setup (74/100)Model Risk Weight (26/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$751.5M	$93.3M	$152.3M	69.2%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$637.8M	$77.1M	$137.4M	67%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$536.9M	$65.8M	$132.3M	69.2%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating SPSC & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on SPSC
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

SPSC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +52.85%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $85.78H $86.14L $80.87C $85.78VOL 659.4K

RES: $101.0SUP: $72.71SMA50: $83.38SMA200: $68.08

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SPSC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SPSC Butterfly Map → + Track SPSC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

25.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +17.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SPSC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SPSC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SPSC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SPSC)

Technology Rank #58 of 714 ⚔️ CLBT vs SPSC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (SPSC vs. CLBT, INTA, TDC, VIA)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) ranks #58 by composite RQD confidence (74/100, grade B) and #251 by equity capitalization ($3.09B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TDC leads on earnings valuation at 24.8x trailing P/E, while TDC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 59.4% gross margin. SPSC currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 74/100 (B).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SPSC ACTIVE SPS Commerce Inc.	B	74/100	33.1x	69.2%	11.4%	+0.22%	$3.09B	Benchmark Subject
CLBT Cellebrite DI Ltd.	B	73/100	39.4x	84.2%	14.6%	+3.02%	$3.09B	/clbt-vs-spsc →
INTA Intapp Inc.	D	49/100	—	74.0%	-9.9%	-3.07%	$3.00B	/inta-vs-spsc →
TDC Teradata Corporation	D+	57/100	24.8x	59.4%	85.0%	+0.76%	$3.22B	/tdc-vs-spsc →
VIA Via Transportation Inc. (Class A)	D-	39/100	—	39.6%	-23.6%	-1.04%	$2.94B	/via-vs-spsc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001092699

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) reported GAAP revenue of $751.5M (+17.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $637.8M , and +40.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $93.3M, operating cash flow of $178.8M, and free cash flow of $152.3M (+10.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, SPSC closed FY2025 with $1.17B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 11.13, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$751.5M	$93.3M	$178.8M	$152.3M	$1.17B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$637.8M	$77.1M	$157.4M	$137.4M	$1.03B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$536.9M	$65.8M	$132.3M	$132.3M	—	—

3. SPSC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SPSC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, SPS Commerce Inc. (NASDAQ: SPSC) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 74/100 at a spot price of $85.78 (+0.22% 1D, market cap $3.09B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, SPSC ranks #58 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SPSC compare to CLBT and INTA in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), SPSC carries a Roarable B (74/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 33.1x, gross margin of 69.2%, and ROIC of 11.4%. By comparison, CLBT (Cellebrite DI Ltd.) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 39.4x, ROIC 14.6%, cap $3.09B) and INTA (Intapp Inc.) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -9.9%, cap $3.00B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TDC leads on earnings multiple (24.8x) while TDC leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SPSC?

Per SPSC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001092699), SPS Commerce Inc. generated $751.5M in revenue (+17.8% YoY), $93.3M in net income, and $152.3M in free cash flow against $1.17B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (69% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SPSC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SPSC last traded at $85.78 (+0.22% on volume of 704,423 shares), positioning the stock +2.88% above its 50-day simple moving average ($83.38) and +26.00% above its 200-day simple moving average ($68.08). Across its 52-week range of $49.04 to $96.54, SPSC sits at the 77.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.6% ($79.26 to $92.30).

SPSC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is SPSC's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is SPSC stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±7.6% event move for SPSC, spanning a range between $79.26 and $92.3.

Direct Sub-Reports: SPSC RQD Cockpit SPSC 12M Forecast SPSC Earnings & Move SPSC Dividends & DRIP SPSC Insiders & 13F SPSC Whale Options SPSC Profit Sankey SPSC News & Why