MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why SPFI Stock advanced +1.05% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$44.19 +1.05% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $44.38
South Plains Financial Inc. (SPFI) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 12% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.
ROARABLE B- • BUY
Cap $832.5M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $44.38 (+0.43%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 1.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk B
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.9% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SPFI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (71/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SPFI SCORES 71/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (23% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 76% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 55.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C+$42.32+2.9% Next Q
63
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B-$43.53-1.2% Next Q
66
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B-$43.02+2.7% Next Q
68
CurrentGrade B-$44.19+6.8% Hist 90D α
71
Trajectory: C+ (63) → B- (71)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SPFI Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 71/100 (B-) score, SPFI faces multiple-compression risk if 14.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($43.56) or 200D SMA ($42.61) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($46.78) toward Bear Floor ($36.24).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SPFI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SPFI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why SPFI Stock advanced +1.05% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
South Plains Financial Inc. (SPFI) advanced +1.05% to $44.19, trading at 76% of its 52-week range ($35.7 – $46.94). High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 12% return on capital) with steady institutional support.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 76% of its 52-week range ($35.7 – $46.94) with RSI-14 at 55.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.6% around $44.19 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable B- (Buy) backed by 52% gross margin and $71.8M annual free cash flow.
Live SPFI Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (SPFI Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
SPFI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.57%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $44.28H $44.44L $43.57C $44.19VOL 88.3K
RES: $45.26SUP: $40.53SMA50: $43.56SMA200: $42.61
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
SPFI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
6.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SPFI today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SPFI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SPFI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SPFI)
Financials Rank #125 of 1096
⚔️ RCBC vs SPFI Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (SPFI vs. RCBC, SMBK, ALRS, IBCP)
Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, South Plains Financial Inc. (SPFI) ranks #125 by composite RQD confidence (71/100, grade B-) and #590 by equity capitalization ($832.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, IBCP leads on earnings valuation at 12.0x trailing P/E, while IBCP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.6% ROIC and — gross margin. SPFI currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 71/100 (B-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPFI
ACTIVE
South Plains Financial Inc. | B- | 71/100 | 14.2x | — | 11.8% | +1.05% | $832.5M | Benchmark Subject |
| RCBC River City Bank | D+ | 57/100 | — | — | — | -0.30% | $834.2M | /rcbc-vs-spfi → |
| SMBK SmartFinancial Inc. | C+ | 68/100 | 16.7x | — | 9.1% | +1.09% | $839.0M | /smbk-vs-spfi → |
| ALRS Alerus Financial Corporation | C+ | 66/100 | 47.2x | — | 3.1% | +2.36% | $823.4M | /alrs-vs-spfi → |
| IBCP Independent Bank Corporation | C+ | 66/100 | 12.0x | — | 13.6% | +0.49% | $819.2M | /ibcp-vs-spfi → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001163668In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), South Plains Financial Inc. (SPFI) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $58.5M, operating cash flow of $77.5M, and free cash flow of $71.8M (+28.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, SPFI closed FY2025 with $4.48B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $58.5M | $77.5M | $71.8M | $4.48B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $49.7M | $59.4M | $56.0M | $4.23B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $62.7M | $58.5M | $58.5M | — | — |
3. SPFI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs SPFI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, South Plains Financial Inc. (NASDAQ: SPFI) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $44.19 (+1.05% 1D, market cap $832.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, SPFI ranks #125 in composite RQD confidence.
How does SPFI compare to RCBC and SMBK in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), SPFI carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.8%. By comparison, RCBC (River City Bank) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $834.2M) and SMBK (SmartFinancial Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 16.7x, ROIC 9.1%, cap $839.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, IBCP leads on earnings multiple (12.0x) while IBCP leads on capital efficiency (13.6% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SPFI?
Per SPFI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001163668), South Plains Financial Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $58.5M in net income, and $71.8M in free cash flow against $4.48B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is SPFI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
SPFI last traded at $44.19 (+1.05% on volume of 118,162 shares), positioning the stock +1.45% above its 50-day simple moving average ($43.56) and +3.71% above its 200-day simple moving average ($42.61). Across its 52-week range of $35.70 to $46.94, SPFI sits at the 75.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.6% ($42.16 to $46.22).
SPFI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is SPFI stock moving today?
Why SPFI Stock advanced +1.05% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 12% return on capital) with steady institutional support.