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Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$33.03 +2.36% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $33.11

Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $823.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $33.11 (+0.23%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 1.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALRS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ALRS SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 90% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 63.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (20% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.6% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 8 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$31.07+0.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$31.34+2.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$32.24+2.5% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$33.03+1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (58) → C+ (66)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ALRS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, ALRS faces multiple-compression risk if 47.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 47x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($32.37) or 200D SMA ($28.81) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($34.22) toward Bear Floor ($26.69).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALRS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ALRS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 66%NO 34%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

63.930 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

4 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE90% OF RANGE

L: $21$33.03H: $34

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: BRQD 29 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on ALRS

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (60)

3.1% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 7.15% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (68)

25/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 16/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ALRS

✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Priced at 47x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ALRS Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ALRS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +22.61%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $33.19H $33.54L $32.92C $33.03VOL 180.3K

RES: $32.32SUP: $30.39SMA50: $32.37SMA200: $28.81

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ALRS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ALRS Butterfly Map → + Track ALRS →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

34.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALRS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALRS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALRS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALRS)

Financials Rank #286 of 1096 ⚔️ IBCP vs ALRS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ALRS vs. IBCP, SPFI, RCBC, SMBK)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) ranks #286 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #597 by equity capitalization ($823.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, IBCP leads on earnings valuation at 12.0x trailing P/E, while IBCP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.6% ROIC and — gross margin. SPFI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with ALRS at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ALRS ACTIVE Alerus Financial Corporation	C+	66/100	47.2x	—	3.1%	+2.36%	$823.4M	Benchmark Subject
IBCP Independent Bank Corporation	C+	66/100	12.0x	—	13.6%	+0.49%	$819.2M	/ibcp-vs-alrs →
SPFI South Plains Financial Inc.	B-	71/100	14.2x	—	11.8%	+1.05%	$832.5M	/spfi-vs-alrs →
RCBC River City Bank	D+	57/100	—	—	—	-0.30%	$834.2M	/rcbc-vs-alrs →
SMBK SmartFinancial Inc.	C+	68/100	16.7x	—	9.1%	+1.09%	$839.0M	/smbk-vs-alrs →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000903419

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $17.4M, operating cash flow of $67.5M, and free cash flow of $58.8M (+527.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALRS closed FY2025 with $5.23B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$17.4M	$67.5M	$58.8M	$5.23B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$17.8M	$21.7M	$9.4M	$5.26B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$11.7M	$26.8M	$26.8M	—	—

3. ALRS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ALRS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Alerus Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: ALRS) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $33.03 (+2.36% 1D, market cap $823.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ALRS ranks #286 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ALRS compare to IBCP and SPFI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), ALRS carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 47.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.1%. By comparison, IBCP (Independent Bank Corporation) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 13.6%, cap $819.2M) and SPFI (South Plains Financial Inc.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 14.2x, ROIC 11.8%, cap $832.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, IBCP leads on earnings multiple (12.0x) while IBCP leads on capital efficiency (13.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALRS?

Per ALRS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000903419), Alerus Financial Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $17.4M in net income, and $58.8M in free cash flow against $5.23B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 47x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ALRS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALRS last traded at $33.03 (+2.36% on volume of 179,626 shares), positioning the stock +2.04% above its 50-day simple moving average ($32.37) and +14.65% above its 200-day simple moving average ($28.81). Across its 52-week range of $20.75 to $34.40, ALRS sits at the 90.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.6% ($31.51 to $34.55).

ALRS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell ALRS stock right now?

Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold — HOLD) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (3% return on capital), mixed timing at 47x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is ALRS's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ALRS's 12-month base price target is $34.22 (range $26.69 to $40.38), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: ALRS RQD Cockpit ALRS 12M Forecast ALRS Earnings & Move ALRS Dividends & DRIP ALRS Insiders & 13F ALRS Whale Options ALRS Profit Sankey ALRS News & Why