Stock Ratings / Financials / ALRS / options

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Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$33.17 +0.42% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $33.13

Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $823.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ALRS Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ALRS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Alerus Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: ALRS) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $33.17 (+0.42% 1D, market cap $823.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ALRS ranks #350 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ALRS compare to IBCP and SPFI in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), ALRS carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 47.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.1%. By comparison, IBCP (Independent Bank Corporation) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 13.6%, cap $819.2M) and SPFI (South Plains Financial Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 14.2x, ROIC 11.8%, cap $832.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, IBCP leads on earnings multiple (12.0x) while IBCP leads on capital efficiency (13.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALRS?

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Per ALRS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000903419), Alerus Financial Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $17.4M in net income, and $58.8M in free cash flow against $5.23B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 47x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $33.13 (-0.11%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 1.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALRS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ALRS SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.7% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 8 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$31.06+0.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$31.16+4.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$32.52+2% Next Q

Current

Grade C$33.17+0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ALRS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, ALRS faces multiple-compression risk if 47.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 47x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($32.37) or 200D SMA ($28.85) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($33.92) toward Bear Floor ($26.46).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALRS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ALRS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±4.7%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ALRS)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ALRS.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating ALRS & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on ALRS
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ALRS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +24.75%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE

2026-11-02O $32.27H $33.17L $32.27C $33.17VOL 179.6K

RES: $33.99SUP: $30.40SMA50: $32.37SMA200: $28.85

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ALRS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ALRS Butterfly Map → + Track ALRS →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

34.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALRS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALRS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALRS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALRS)

Financials Rank #350 of 1096 ⚔️ IBCP vs ALRS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ALRS vs. IBCP, SPFI, RCBC, SMBK)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) ranks #350 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #597 by equity capitalization ($823.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, IBCP leads on earnings valuation at 12.0x trailing P/E, while IBCP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.6% ROIC and — gross margin. IBCP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with ALRS at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ALRS ACTIVE Alerus Financial Corporation	C	63/100	47.2x	—	3.1%	+0.42%	$823.4M	Benchmark Subject
IBCP Independent Bank Corporation	B	73/100	12.0x	—	13.6%	-1.43%	$819.2M	/ibcp-vs-alrs →
SPFI South Plains Financial Inc.	B-	70/100	14.2x	—	11.8%	-0.41%	$832.5M	/spfi-vs-alrs →
RCBC River City Bank	C-	61/100	—	—	—	-1.29%	$834.2M	/rcbc-vs-alrs →
SMBK SmartFinancial Inc.	C	63/100	16.7x	—	9.1%	-1.22%	$839.0M	/smbk-vs-alrs →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000903419

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $17.4M, operating cash flow of $67.5M, and free cash flow of $58.8M (+527.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALRS closed FY2025 with $5.23B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$17.4M	$67.5M	$58.8M	$5.23B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$17.8M	$21.7M	$9.4M	$5.26B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$11.7M	$26.8M	$26.8M	—	—

3. ALRS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ALRS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ALRS compare to IBCP and SPFI in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALRS?

Where is ALRS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALRS last traded at $33.17 (+0.42% on volume of 180,372 shares), positioning the stock +2.47% above its 50-day simple moving average ($32.37) and +14.97% above its 200-day simple moving average ($28.85). Across its 52-week range of $20.31 to $34.40, ALRS sits at the 91.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.7% ($31.61 to $34.73).

ALRS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is ALRS's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for ALRS.

Direct Sub-Reports: ALRS RQD Cockpit ALRS 12M Forecast ALRS Earnings & Move ALRS Dividends & DRIP ALRS Insiders & 13F ALRS Whale Options ALRS Profit Sankey ALRS News & Why