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Sound Group Inc. (SOGP) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$11.20 -1.39% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.15

Sound Group Inc. (SOGP) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $46.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.15 (-0.44%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 8.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SOGP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SOGP SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 8.9% FCF Margin ($39.6M FCF) & 29.2% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 11% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 50.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$10.84-9.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$9.83+15% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$11.30-0.9% Next Q

Current

Grade C$11.20+0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SOGP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, SOGP faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 26.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.48) or 200D SMA ($12.93) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($11.45) toward Bear Floor ($8.93).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SOGP• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SOGP Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

50.930 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDWATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)

1.85>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE11% OF RANGE

L: $10$11.20H: $24

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (29% profit margin and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: A-RQD 17 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 19 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on SOGP

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (85)

85.0% ROIC with 29.2% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (60)

Altman-Z 1.85 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (57)

19/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 15/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like SOGP

✓Strong cash generator (29% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (SOGP Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

SOGP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -34.92%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $11.35H $11.35L $10.78C $11.20VOL 5.3K

RES: $11.65SUP: $9.49SMA50: $11.48SMA200: $12.93

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SOGP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SOGP Butterfly Map → + Track SOGP →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +59.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SOGP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SOGP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SOGP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SOGP)

Technology Rank #211 of 714 ⚔️ MF vs SOGP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (SOGP vs. MF, JG, GOAI, TEAD)

Industry: Computer Software: Programming Data Processing (72 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Sound Group Inc. (SOGP) ranks #211 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #566 by equity capitalization ($46.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SOGP leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while SOGP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 29.2% gross margin. SOGP currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SOGP ACTIVE Sound Group Inc.	C	63/100	—	29.2%	85.0%	-1.39%	$46.8M	Benchmark Subject
MF MindForge Inc. (Class A)	D-	41/100	—	0.8%	-6.6%	+11.99%	$41.6M	/mf-vs-sogp →
JG Aurora Mobile Limited	D	49/100	—	67.2%	4.0%	-12.21%	$40.3M	/jg-vs-sogp →
GOAI Eva Live Inc.	C	62/100	—	—	67.0%	+8.88%	$40.1M	/goai-vs-sogp →
TEAD Teads Holding Co.	D-	41/100	—	33.0%	-35.0%	-12.20%	$29.9M	/tead-vs-sogp →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001783407

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Sound Group Inc. (SOGP) reported GAAP revenue of $443.7M (+59.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $278.4M , and +52.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $40.0M, and free cash flow of $39.6M (+869.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, SOGP closed FY2025 with $107.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.85, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$443.7M	$0	$40.0M	$39.6M	$107.2M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$278.4M	$0	-$3.6M	-$5.1M	$71.4M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$291.8M	$0	-$16.5M	-$16.5M	—	—

3. SOGP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SOGP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Sound Group Inc. (NASDAQ: SOGP) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $11.20 (-1.39% 1D, market cap $46.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, SOGP ranks #211 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SOGP compare to MF and JG in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Programming Data Processing), SOGP carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 29.2%, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, MF (MindForge Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -6.6%, cap $41.6M) and JG (Aurora Mobile Limited) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 4.0%, cap $40.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SOGP leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while SOGP leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SOGP?

Per SOGP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001783407), Sound Group Inc. generated $443.7M in revenue (+59.4% YoY), $0 in net income, and $39.6M in free cash flow against $107.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (29% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SOGP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SOGP last traded at $11.20 (-1.39% on volume of 10,577 shares), positioning the stock -2.44% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.48) and -13.38% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.93). Across its 52-week range of $9.73 to $23.50, SOGP sits at the 10.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.8% ($9.99 to $12.41).

SOGP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell SOGP stock right now?

Sound Group Inc. (SOGP) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C (Hold — HOLD) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. Solid 29% profit margin (85% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is SOGP's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

SOGP's 12-month base price target is $11.45 (range $8.93 to $24.68), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: SOGP RQD Cockpit SOGP 12M Forecast SOGP Earnings & Move SOGP Dividends & DRIP SOGP Insiders & 13F SOGP Whale Options SOGP Profit Sankey SOGP News & Why