Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / SMP / earnings

APOG (70) AEVA (23) DCH (40) ADNT (50) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Standard Motor Products Inc. (SMP) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±5.4% Move

$38.25 +0.98% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.24

Standard Motor Products Inc. (SMP) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $854.5M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.25 (-0.01%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SMP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SMP SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 34% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 77.7 (OVERBOUGHT (>70))

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 7.6% operating margin leave 12 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$36.67+0.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$36.95+0.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$37.27+2.6% Next Q

Current

Grade C$38.25+1.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (57) → C (65)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SMP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, SMP faces multiple-compression risk if 20.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 28.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($37.71) or 200D SMA ($38.57) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($39.45) toward Bear Floor ($30.77).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SMP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SMP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±5.4% Swing Band

±$2.07 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

SMP Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 65/100

Trailing EPS: $1.89 • YoY Revenue Growth: 22.4%

Model Bullish Setup (65/100)Model Risk Weight (35/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$1.79B	$42.2M	$18.7M	31.2%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$1.46B	$28.5M	$32.7M	28.9%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$1.36B	$34.4M	$144.3M	31.2%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating SMP & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on SMP
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

SMP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +2.35%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $41.40H $43.52L $38.25C $38.25VOL 303.7K

RES: $43.49SUP: $33.96SMA50: $37.71SMA200: $38.57

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SMP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SMP Butterfly Map → + Track SMP →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

13.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +22.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SMP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SMP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SMP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SMP)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #287 of 1011 ⚔️ APOG vs SMP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (SMP vs. APOG, AEVA, DCH, ADNT)

Industry: Auto Parts:O.E.M. (36 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Standard Motor Products Inc. (SMP) ranks #287 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #530 by equity capitalization ($854.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, APOG leads on earnings valuation at 17.7x trailing P/E, while APOG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.2% ROIC and 22.7% gross margin. APOG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with SMP at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SMP ACTIVE Standard Motor Products Inc.	C	65/100	20.2x	31.2%	8.6%	+0.98%	$854.5M	Benchmark Subject
APOG Apogee Enterprises Inc.	B-	70/100	17.7x	22.7%	9.2%	+2.39%	$957.0M	/apog-vs-smp →
AEVA Aeva Technologies Inc.	E	23/100	—	-3.7%	-35.0%	-7.02%	$692.9M	/aeva-vs-smp →
DCH Dauch Corporation	D-	40/100	—	12.1%	2.2%	+1.84%	$1.19B	/dch-vs-smp →
ADNT Adient plc	D	50/100	—	6.6%	-16.2%	+0.52%	$1.34B	/adnt-vs-smp →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000093389

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Standard Motor Products Inc. (SMP) reported GAAP revenue of $1.79B (+22.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.46B , and +31.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $42.2M, operating cash flow of $57.4M, and free cash flow of $18.7M (-42.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, SMP closed FY2025 with $2.00B in total assets against $566.7M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.27, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.79B	$42.2M	$57.4M	$18.7M	$2.00B	$566.7M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.46B	$28.5M	$76.7M	$32.7M	$1.81B	$535.2M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.36B	$34.4M	$144.3M	$144.3M	—	—

3. SMP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SMP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Standard Motor Products Inc. (NYSE: SMP) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $38.25 (+0.98% 1D, market cap $854.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SMP ranks #287 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SMP compare to APOG and AEVA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Parts:O.E.M.), SMP carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.2x, gross margin of 31.2%, and ROIC of 8.6%. By comparison, APOG (Apogee Enterprises Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 17.7x, ROIC 9.2%, cap $957.0M) and AEVA (Aeva Technologies Inc.) posts a E grade (23/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $692.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, APOG leads on earnings multiple (17.7x) while APOG leads on capital efficiency (9.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SMP?

Per SMP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000093389), Standard Motor Products Inc. generated $1.79B in revenue (+22.4% YoY), $42.2M in net income, and $18.7M in free cash flow against $2.00B in total assets and $566.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SMP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SMP last traded at $38.25 (+0.98% on volume of 138,808 shares), positioning the stock +1.43% above its 50-day simple moving average ($37.71) and -0.83% below its 200-day simple moving average ($38.57). Across its 52-week range of $34.27 to $46.00, SMP sits at the 33.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 77.7 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.4% ($36.18 to $40.32).

SMP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is SMP's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Standard Motor Products Inc. (SMP)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is SMP stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±5.4% event move for SMP, spanning a range between $36.18 and $40.32.

Direct Sub-Reports: SMP RQD Cockpit SMP 12M Forecast SMP Earnings & Move SMP Dividends & DRIP SMP Insiders & 13F SMP Whale Options SMP Profit Sankey SMP News & Why