Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / SHOO / options

BIRK (54) WWW (74) CROX (69) DECK (75) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$44.93 +5.27% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.27

Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $3.29B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.27 (+0.76%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 4.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SHOO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SHOO SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 5.00 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.7% FCF Margin ($119.5M FCF) & 41.6% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 9 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$44.30+2.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$45.27-4.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$43.21+4% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$44.93+2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SHOO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, SHOO faces multiple-compression risk if 73.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 74x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 39.1% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($43.98) or 200D SMA ($41.37) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($47.15) toward Bear Floor ($36.78).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SHOO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SHOO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±7.1%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (SHOO)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for SHOO.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating SHOO & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on SHOO
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✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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SHOO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +19.62%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL

2026-10-30O $44.93H $45.30L $43.34C $44.93VOL 1.22M

RES: $46.81SUP: $41.96SMA50: $43.98SMA200: $41.37

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SHOO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SHOO Butterfly Map → + Track SHOO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

47.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SHOO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SHOO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SHOO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SHOO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #200 of 1011 ⚔️ BIRK vs SHOO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (SHOO vs. BIRK, WWW, CROX, DECK)

Industry: Shoe Manufacturing (9 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) ranks #200 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #344 by equity capitalization ($3.29B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DECK leads on earnings valuation at 11.0x trailing P/E, while DECK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 73.9% ROIC and 57.7% gross margin. DECK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with SHOO at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SHOO ACTIVE Steven Madden Ltd.	C+	69/100	73.6x	41.6%	6.5%	+5.27%	$3.29B	Benchmark Subject
BIRK Birkenstock Holding plc	D+	54/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	+5.70%	$5.51B	/birk-vs-shoo →
WWW Wolverine World Wide Inc.	B	74/100	17.6x	47.3%	12.4%	+5.16%	$1.69B	/www-vs-shoo →
CROX Crocs Inc.	C+	69/100	—	58.3%	4.9%	+25.54%	$7.20B	/crox-vs-shoo →
DECK Deckers Outdoor Corporation	B	75/100	11.0x	57.7%	73.9%	+2.50%	$11.29B	/deck-vs-shoo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000913241

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) reported GAAP revenue of $2.52B (+11.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.27B , and +27.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $44.7M, operating cash flow of $162.2M, and free cash flow of $119.5M (-30.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, SHOO closed FY2025 with $1.91B in total assets against $234.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.00, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.52B	$44.7M	$162.2M	$119.5M	$1.91B	$234.2M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.27B	$169.4M	$198.1M	$172.2M	$1.41B	$0
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.97B	$171.6M	$229.2M	$229.2M	—	—

3. SHOO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SHOO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Steven Madden Ltd. (NASDAQ: SHOO) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $44.93 (+5.27% 1D, market cap $3.29B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SHOO ranks #200 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SHOO compare to BIRK and WWW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Shoe Manufacturing), SHOO carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 73.6x, gross margin of 41.6%, and ROIC of 6.5%. By comparison, BIRK (Birkenstock Holding plc) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $5.51B) and WWW (Wolverine World Wide Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 17.6x, ROIC 12.4%, cap $1.69B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DECK leads on earnings multiple (11.0x) while DECK leads on capital efficiency (73.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SHOO?

Per SHOO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000913241), Steven Madden Ltd. generated $2.52B in revenue (+11.0% YoY), $44.7M in net income, and $119.5M in free cash flow against $1.91B in total assets and $234.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (42% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 74x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SHOO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SHOO last traded at $44.93 (+5.27% on volume of 1,198,176 shares), positioning the stock +2.16% above its 50-day simple moving average ($43.98) and +8.61% above its 200-day simple moving average ($41.37). Across its 52-week range of $31.33 to $49.70, SHOO sits at the 74.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.1% ($41.74 to $48.12).

SHOO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is SHOO's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for SHOO.

Direct Sub-Reports: SHOO RQD Cockpit SHOO 12M Forecast SHOO Earnings & Move SHOO Dividends & DRIP SHOO Insiders & 13F SHOO Whale Options SHOO Profit Sankey SHOO News & Why