Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / SHOO / earnings

BIRK (54) WWW (74) CROX (69) DECK (75) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7.1% Move

$44.93 +5.27% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.27

Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $3.29B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.27 (+0.76%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 4.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SHOO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SHOO SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 5.00 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.7% FCF Margin ($119.5M FCF) & 41.6% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 9 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$44.30+2.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$45.27-4.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$43.21+4% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$44.93+2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SHOO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, SHOO faces multiple-compression risk if 73.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 74x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 39.1% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($43.98) or 200D SMA ($41.37) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($47.15) toward Bear Floor ($36.78).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SHOO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SHOO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±7.1% Swing Band

±$3.19 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

SHOO Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 69/100

Trailing EPS: $0.61 • YoY Revenue Growth: 11%

Model Bullish Setup (69/100)Model Risk Weight (31/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$2.52B	$44.7M	$119.5M	41.6%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$2.27B	$169.4M	$172.2M	41.2%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$1.97B	$171.6M	$229.2M	41.6%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating SHOO & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on SHOO
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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SHOO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +19.62%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL

2026-10-30O $44.93H $45.30L $43.34C $44.93VOL 1.22M

RES: $46.81SUP: $41.96SMA50: $43.98SMA200: $41.37

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SHOO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SHOO Butterfly Map → + Track SHOO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

47.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SHOO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SHOO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SHOO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SHOO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #200 of 1011 ⚔️ BIRK vs SHOO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (SHOO vs. BIRK, WWW, CROX, DECK)

Industry: Shoe Manufacturing (9 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) ranks #200 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #344 by equity capitalization ($3.29B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DECK leads on earnings valuation at 11.0x trailing P/E, while DECK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 73.9% ROIC and 57.7% gross margin. DECK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with SHOO at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SHOO ACTIVE Steven Madden Ltd.	C+	69/100	73.6x	41.6%	6.5%	+5.27%	$3.29B	Benchmark Subject
BIRK Birkenstock Holding plc	D+	54/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	+5.70%	$5.51B	/birk-vs-shoo →
WWW Wolverine World Wide Inc.	B	74/100	17.6x	47.3%	12.4%	+5.16%	$1.69B	/www-vs-shoo →
CROX Crocs Inc.	C+	69/100	—	58.3%	4.9%	+25.54%	$7.20B	/crox-vs-shoo →
DECK Deckers Outdoor Corporation	B	75/100	11.0x	57.7%	73.9%	+2.50%	$11.29B	/deck-vs-shoo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000913241

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) reported GAAP revenue of $2.52B (+11.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.27B , and +27.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $44.7M, operating cash flow of $162.2M, and free cash flow of $119.5M (-30.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, SHOO closed FY2025 with $1.91B in total assets against $234.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.00, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.52B	$44.7M	$162.2M	$119.5M	$1.91B	$234.2M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.27B	$169.4M	$198.1M	$172.2M	$1.41B	$0
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.97B	$171.6M	$229.2M	$229.2M	—	—

3. SHOO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SHOO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Steven Madden Ltd. (NASDAQ: SHOO) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $44.93 (+5.27% 1D, market cap $3.29B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SHOO ranks #200 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SHOO compare to BIRK and WWW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Shoe Manufacturing), SHOO carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 73.6x, gross margin of 41.6%, and ROIC of 6.5%. By comparison, BIRK (Birkenstock Holding plc) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $5.51B) and WWW (Wolverine World Wide Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 17.6x, ROIC 12.4%, cap $1.69B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DECK leads on earnings multiple (11.0x) while DECK leads on capital efficiency (73.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SHOO?

Per SHOO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000913241), Steven Madden Ltd. generated $2.52B in revenue (+11.0% YoY), $44.7M in net income, and $119.5M in free cash flow against $1.91B in total assets and $234.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (42% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 74x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SHOO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SHOO last traded at $44.93 (+5.27% on volume of 1,198,176 shares), positioning the stock +2.16% above its 50-day simple moving average ($43.98) and +8.61% above its 200-day simple moving average ($41.37). Across its 52-week range of $31.33 to $49.70, SHOO sits at the 74.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.1% ($41.74 to $48.12).

SHOO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is SHOO's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is SHOO stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±7.1% event move for SHOO, spanning a range between $41.74 and $48.12.

Direct Sub-Reports: SHOO RQD Cockpit SHOO 12M Forecast SHOO Earnings & Move SHOO Dividends & DRIP SHOO Insiders & 13F SHOO Whale Options SHOO Profit Sankey SHOO News & Why