MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why SFST Stock slipped -0.18% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$60.87 -0.18% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $60.73
Southern First Bancshares Inc. (SFST) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $576.5M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $60.74 (-0.22%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 0.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SFST)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SFST SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (25% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 83% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 42.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (22% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$59.65+0.3% Next Q
55
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$59.81+2.3% Next Q
58
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$61.20-0.5% Next Q
60
CurrentGrade C$60.87+0.9% Hist 90D α
63
Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SFST Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 63/100 (C) score, SFST faces multiple-compression risk if 19.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($61.14) or 200D SMA ($58.86) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($62.24) toward Bear Floor ($48.55).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SFST• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SFST Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why SFST Stock slipped -0.18% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Southern First Bancshares Inc. (SFST) slipped -0.18% to $60.87, trading at 83% of its 52-week range ($40.91 – $65.09). Solid steady margins (8% return on capital), mixed timing at 19x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 83% of its 52-week range ($40.91 – $65.09) with RSI-14 at 42.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.8% around $60.87 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $29.9M annual free cash flow.
Live SFST Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (SFST Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
SFST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.12%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $60.93H $60.93L $58.98C $60.87VOL 75.2K
RES: $62.30SUP: $58.28SMA50: $61.14SMA200: $58.86
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
SFST Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
12.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SFST today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SFST. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SFST today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SFST)
Financials Rank #394 of 1096
⚔️ UNTY vs SFST Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (SFST vs. UNTY, BWB, BSVN, CIVB)
Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Southern First Bancshares Inc. (SFST) ranks #394 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #672 by equity capitalization ($576.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UNTY leads on earnings valuation at 10.1x trailing P/E, while BSVN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.2% ROIC and — gross margin. BSVN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with SFST at 63/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFST
ACTIVE
Southern First Bancshares Inc. | C | 63/100 | 19.0x | — | 8.2% | -0.18% | $576.5M | Benchmark Subject |
| UNTY Unity Bancorp Inc. | C+ | 67/100 | 10.1x | — | 16.8% | +0.64% | $583.5M | /unty-vs-sfst → |
| BWB Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. | D+ | 53/100 | 12.3x | — | 8.9% | -0.24% | $567.2M | /bwb-vs-sfst → |
| BSVN Bank7 Corp. | B- | 70/100 | 13.1x | — | 17.2% | +0.46% | $564.9M | /bsvn-vs-sfst → |
| CIVB Civista Bancshares Inc. | B- | 70/100 | 12.8x | — | 8.5% | +1.03% | $592.0M | /civb-vs-sfst → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001090009In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Southern First Bancshares Inc. (SFST) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $30.4M, operating cash flow of $30.5M, and free cash flow of $29.9M (+20.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, SFST closed FY2025 with $4.40B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $30.4M | $30.5M | $29.9M | $4.40B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $15.5M | $25.6M | $24.8M | $4.09B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $13.4M | $17.7M | $17.7M | — | — |
3. SFST Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs SFST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Southern First Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: SFST) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $60.87 (-0.18% 1D, market cap $576.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, SFST ranks #394 in composite RQD confidence.
How does SFST compare to UNTY and BWB in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), SFST carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 19.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.2%. By comparison, UNTY (Unity Bancorp Inc.) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 10.1x, ROIC 16.8%, cap $583.5M) and BWB (Bridgewater Bancshares Inc.) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 12.3x, ROIC 8.9%, cap $567.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, UNTY leads on earnings multiple (10.1x) while BSVN leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SFST?
Per SFST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001090009), Southern First Bancshares Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $30.4M in net income, and $29.9M in free cash flow against $4.40B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is SFST trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
SFST last traded at $60.87 (-0.18% on volume of 125,414 shares), positioning the stock -0.44% below its 50-day simple moving average ($61.14) and +3.41% above its 200-day simple moving average ($58.86). Across its 52-week range of $40.91 to $65.09, SFST sits at the 82.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.8% ($57.95 to $63.79).
SFST Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is SFST stock moving today?
Why SFST Stock slipped -0.18% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (8% return on capital), mixed timing at 19x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.