MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why SES Stock surged +9.74% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$0.91 +9.74% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.92
SES AI Corporation (Class A) (SES) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 41/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $322.5M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.92 (+1.56%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.7% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SES)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (41/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SES SCORES 41/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (39% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (24% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 20% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 53.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$0.78-9% Next Q
33
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$0.71-2.8% Next Q
36
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$0.69+31.9% Next Q
38
CurrentGrade D-$0.91-7.2% Hist 90D α
41
Trajectory: E (33) → D- (41)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SES Turnaround Squeeze
While SES currently carries a cautious 41/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($0.65) and Max Pain ($0.96) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $2.75.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SES• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SES Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why SES Stock surged +9.74% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
SES AI Corporation (Class A) (SES) surged +9.74% to $0.91, trading at 20% of its 52-week range ($0.49 – $2.62). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 20% of its 52-week range ($0.49 – $2.62) with RSI-14 at 53.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $0.91 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 53.8% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live SES Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SES)
- ✓Walkthrough of SES's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
SES // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.33%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL
2026-10-30O $0.81H $0.91L $0.73C $0.91VOL 21.37M
RES: $1.00SUP: $0.52SMA50: $0.65SMA200: $1.04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
SES Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SES today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SES. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SES today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SES)
Industrials Rank #366 of 485
⚔️ HLP vs SES Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (SES vs. HLP, CUB, TWIN, ELVA)
Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, SES AI Corporation (Class A) (SES) ranks #366 by composite RQD confidence (41/100, grade D-) and #320 by equity capitalization ($322.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CUB leads on earnings valuation at 38.8x trailing P/E, while TWIN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.9% ROIC and 27.6% gross margin. HLP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with SES at 41/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SES
ACTIVE
SES AI Corporation (Class A) | D- | 41/100 | — | 53.8% | -35.0% | +9.74% | $322.5M | Benchmark Subject |
| HLP Hongli Group Inc. (Class A) | C- | 61/100 | — | 32.5% | 3.4% | 0.00% | $313.2M | /hlp-vs-ses → |
| CUB Lionheart Holdings (Class A) | D- | 40/100 | 38.8x | — | -4.0% | +0.09% | $347.5M | /cub-vs-ses → |
| TWIN Twin Disc Incorporated | C- | 60/100 | — | 27.6% | 3.9% | -0.71% | $367.7M | /twin-vs-ses → |
| ELVA Electrovaya Inc. | D+ | 58/100 | — | — | — | -2.09% | $281.5M | /elva-vs-ses → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001819142In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), SES AI Corporation (Class A) (SES) reported GAAP revenue of $21.0M (+929.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.0M ) , GAAP net income of -$72.5M, operating cash flow of -$58.4M, and free cash flow of -$61.2M (+21.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, SES closed FY2025 with $272.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.36, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $21.0M | -$72.5M | -$58.4M | -$61.2M | $272.6M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $2.0M | -$100.2M | -$66.1M | -$78.3M | $329.8M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | -$53.4M | -$56.4M | -$56.4M | — | — |
3. SES Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs SES stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, SES AI Corporation (Class A) (NYSE: SES) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $0.91 (+9.74% 1D, market cap $322.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, SES ranks #366 in composite RQD confidence.
How does SES compare to HLP and CUB in the Industrials sector?
Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), SES carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 53.8%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, HLP (Hongli Group Inc. (Class A)) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.4%, cap $313.2M) and CUB (Lionheart Holdings (Class A)) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E 38.8x, ROIC -4.0%, cap $347.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CUB leads on earnings multiple (38.8x) while TWIN leads on capital efficiency (3.9% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SES?
Per SES's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819142), SES AI Corporation (Class A) generated $21.0M in revenue (+929.4% YoY), -$72.5M in net income, and -$61.2M in free cash flow against $272.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is SES trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
SES last traded at $0.91 (+9.74% on volume of 37,880,745 shares), positioning the stock +40.00% above its 50-day simple moving average ($0.65) and -12.50% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.04). Across its 52-week range of $0.49 to $2.62, SES sits at the 19.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $1.02).
SES Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is SES stock moving today?
Why SES Stock surged +9.74% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.