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SES AI Corporation (Class A) (SES) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$0.91 +9.74% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.92

SES AI Corporation (Class A) (SES) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 41/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $322.5M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.92 (+1.56%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SES)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (41/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SES SCORES 41/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (39% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 20% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 53.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$0.78-9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$0.71-2.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$0.69+31.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$0.91-7.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (33) → D- (41)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SES Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While SES currently carries a cautious 41/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($0.65) and Max Pain ($0.96) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $2.75.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SES• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SES Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 41%NO 59%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How SES Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $21.0M

FY24

Rev $2.0M

FY25

Rev $21.0M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$21.0M	53.8%	-80%	-$72.5M	-$61.2M	-35.2%
FY 2024	$2.0M	63.1%	-80%	-$100.2M	-$78.3M	-45%
FY 2023	$21.0M	53.8%	-372.2%	-$53.4M	-$56.4M	-35%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SES)

✓Walkthrough of SES's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

SES // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.33%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL

2026-10-30O $0.81H $0.91L $0.73C $0.91VOL 21.37M

RES: $1.00SUP: $0.52SMA50: $0.65SMA200: $1.04

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SES Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SES Butterfly Map → + Track SES →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SES today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SES. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SES today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SES)

Industrials Rank #366 of 485 ⚔️ HLP vs SES Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (SES vs. HLP, CUB, TWIN, ELVA)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, SES AI Corporation (Class A) (SES) ranks #366 by composite RQD confidence (41/100, grade D-) and #320 by equity capitalization ($322.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CUB leads on earnings valuation at 38.8x trailing P/E, while TWIN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.9% ROIC and 27.6% gross margin. HLP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with SES at 41/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SES ACTIVE SES AI Corporation (Class A)	D-	41/100	—	53.8%	-35.0%	+9.74%	$322.5M	Benchmark Subject
HLP Hongli Group Inc. (Class A)	C-	61/100	—	32.5%	3.4%	0.00%	$313.2M	/hlp-vs-ses →
CUB Lionheart Holdings (Class A)	D-	40/100	38.8x	—	-4.0%	+0.09%	$347.5M	/cub-vs-ses →
TWIN Twin Disc Incorporated	C-	60/100	—	27.6%	3.9%	-0.71%	$367.7M	/twin-vs-ses →
ELVA Electrovaya Inc.	D+	58/100	—	—	—	-2.09%	$281.5M	/elva-vs-ses →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001819142

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), SES AI Corporation (Class A) (SES) reported GAAP revenue of $21.0M (+929.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.0M ) , GAAP net income of -$72.5M, operating cash flow of -$58.4M, and free cash flow of -$61.2M (+21.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, SES closed FY2025 with $272.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.36, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$21.0M	-$72.5M	-$58.4M	-$61.2M	$272.6M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.0M	-$100.2M	-$66.1M	-$78.3M	$329.8M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$53.4M	-$56.4M	-$56.4M	—	—

3. SES Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SES stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, SES AI Corporation (Class A) (NYSE: SES) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $0.91 (+9.74% 1D, market cap $322.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, SES ranks #366 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SES compare to HLP and CUB in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), SES carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 53.8%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, HLP (Hongli Group Inc. (Class A)) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.4%, cap $313.2M) and CUB (Lionheart Holdings (Class A)) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E 38.8x, ROIC -4.0%, cap $347.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CUB leads on earnings multiple (38.8x) while TWIN leads on capital efficiency (3.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SES?

Per SES's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819142), SES AI Corporation (Class A) generated $21.0M in revenue (+929.4% YoY), -$72.5M in net income, and -$61.2M in free cash flow against $272.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SES trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SES last traded at $0.91 (+9.74% on volume of 37,880,745 shares), positioning the stock +40.00% above its 50-day simple moving average ($0.65) and -12.50% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.04). Across its 52-week range of $0.49 to $2.62, SES sits at the 19.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $1.02).

SES Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is SES AI Corporation (Class A) (SES)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), SES converted $21.0M of revenue into a 53.8% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: SES RQD Cockpit SES 12M Forecast SES Earnings & Move SES Dividends & DRIP SES Insiders & 13F SES Whale Options SES Profit Sankey SES News & Why