Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / SDHC / earnings

HOV (51) LEGH (69) DFH (51) LGIH (44) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (Class A) (SDHC) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±9% Move

$10.52 +1.94% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.54

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (Class A) (SDHC) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $534.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.54 (+0.16%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SDHC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SDHC SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 1/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$10.15+2.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$10.40+0.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$10.44+0.8% Next Q

Current

Grade D$10.52-6.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (36) → D (44)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SDHC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While SDHC currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.62) and Max Pain ($11.05) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $24.66.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SDHC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SDHC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 44%NO 56%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±9% Swing Band

±$0.95 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

SDHC Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 44/100

Trailing EPS: $0.21 • YoY Revenue Growth: -0.4%

Model Bullish Setup (44/100)Model Risk Weight (56/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$971.1M	$10.7M	-$36.9M	21.8%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$975.5M	$16.1M	$15.2M	26.2%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$764.6M	$0	$76.3M	21.8%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SDHC)

✓Walkthrough of SDHC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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SDHC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -25.81%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $10.54H $10.54L $10.06C $10.52VOL 43.7K

RES: $10.64SUP: $9.42SMA50: $10.62SMA200: $13.61

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SDHC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SDHC Butterfly Map → + Track SDHC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

36.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -0.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SDHC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SDHC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SDHC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SDHC)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #761 of 1011 ⚔️ HOV vs SDHC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (SDHC vs. HOV, LEGH, DFH, LGIH)

Industry: Homebuilding (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (Class A) (SDHC) ranks #761 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #579 by equity capitalization ($534.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DFH leads on earnings valuation at 4.2x trailing P/E, while DFH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.3% ROIC and — gross margin. LEGH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with SDHC at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SDHC ACTIVE Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (Class A)	D	44/100	50.0x	21.8%	12.3%	+1.94%	$534.7M	Benchmark Subject
HOV Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (Class A)	D	51/100	—	—	—	+0.90%	$610.6M	/hov-vs-sdhc →
LEGH Legacy Housing Corporation (TX)	C+	69/100	16.5x	—	7.4%	+1.87%	$688.0M	/legh-vs-sdhc →
DFH Dream Finders Homes Inc. (Class A)	D	51/100	4.2x	—	15.3%	+3.29%	$909.0M	/dfh-vs-sdhc →
LGIH LGI Homes Inc.	D	44/100	14.0x	20.7%	3.0%	+5.12%	$1.02B	/lgih-vs-sdhc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001982518

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (Class A) (SDHC) reported GAAP revenue of $971.1M (-0.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $975.5M , and +27.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $10.7M, operating cash flow of -$31.3M, and free cash flow of -$36.9M (-341.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, SDHC closed FY2025 with $557.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$971.1M	$10.7M	-$31.3M	-$36.9M	$557.6M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$975.5M	$16.1M	$19.1M	$15.2M	$475.9M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$764.6M	$0	$76.3M	$76.3M	—	—

3. SDHC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SDHC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (Class A) (NYSE: SDHC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $10.52 (+1.94% 1D, market cap $534.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SDHC ranks #761 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SDHC compare to HOV and LEGH in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Homebuilding), SDHC carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 50.0x, gross margin of 21.8%, and ROIC of 12.3%. By comparison, HOV (Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (Class A)) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $610.6M) and LEGH (Legacy Housing Corporation (TX)) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 16.5x, ROIC 7.4%, cap $688.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, DFH leads on earnings multiple (4.2x) while DFH leads on capital efficiency (15.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SDHC?

Per SDHC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001982518), Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (Class A) generated $971.1M in revenue (-0.4% YoY), $10.7M in net income, and -$36.9M in free cash flow against $557.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SDHC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SDHC last traded at $10.52 (+1.94% on volume of 58,168 shares), positioning the stock -0.94% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.62) and -22.70% below its 200-day simple moving average ($13.61). Across its 52-week range of $9.71 to $23.49, SDHC sits at the 5.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.0% ($9.57 to $11.47).