Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / SDHC

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Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (Class A) (SDHC) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$10.52 +1.94% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.54

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (Class A) (SDHC) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $534.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.54 (+0.16%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SDHC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SDHC SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 1/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$10.15+2.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$10.40+0.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$10.44+0.8% Next Q

Current

Grade D$10.52-6.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (36) → D (44)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SDHC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While SDHC currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.62) and Max Pain ($11.05) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $24.66.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SDHC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SDHC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 44%NO 56%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

47.630 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

1 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE6% OF RANGE

L: $10$10.52H: $23

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 8 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 16 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on SDHC

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (40)

12.3% ROIC with 21.8% gross margin and -6.89% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 1/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (43)

16/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like SDHC

✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Priced at 50x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SDHC)

✓Walkthrough of SDHC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

SDHC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -25.81%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $10.54H $10.54L $10.06C $10.52VOL 43.7K

RES: $10.64SUP: $9.42SMA50: $10.62SMA200: $13.61

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SDHC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SDHC Butterfly Map → + Track SDHC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

36.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -0.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SDHC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SDHC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SDHC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SDHC)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #761 of 1011 ⚔️ HOV vs SDHC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (SDHC vs. HOV, LEGH, DFH, LGIH)

Industry: Homebuilding (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (Class A) (SDHC) ranks #761 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #579 by equity capitalization ($534.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DFH leads on earnings valuation at 4.2x trailing P/E, while DFH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.3% ROIC and — gross margin. LEGH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with SDHC at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SDHC ACTIVE Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (Class A)	D	44/100	50.0x	21.8%	12.3%	+1.94%	$534.7M	Benchmark Subject
HOV Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (Class A)	D	51/100	—	—	—	+0.90%	$610.6M	/hov-vs-sdhc →
LEGH Legacy Housing Corporation (TX)	C+	69/100	16.5x	—	7.4%	+1.87%	$688.0M	/legh-vs-sdhc →
DFH Dream Finders Homes Inc. (Class A)	D	51/100	4.2x	—	15.3%	+3.29%	$909.0M	/dfh-vs-sdhc →
LGIH LGI Homes Inc.	D	44/100	14.0x	20.7%	3.0%	+5.12%	$1.02B	/lgih-vs-sdhc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001982518

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (Class A) (SDHC) reported GAAP revenue of $971.1M (-0.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $975.5M , and +27.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $10.7M, operating cash flow of -$31.3M, and free cash flow of -$36.9M (-341.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, SDHC closed FY2025 with $557.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$971.1M	$10.7M	-$31.3M	-$36.9M	$557.6M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$975.5M	$16.1M	$19.1M	$15.2M	$475.9M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$764.6M	$0	$76.3M	$76.3M	—	—

3. SDHC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SDHC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (Class A) (NYSE: SDHC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $10.52 (+1.94% 1D, market cap $534.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SDHC ranks #761 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SDHC compare to HOV and LEGH in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Homebuilding), SDHC carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 50.0x, gross margin of 21.8%, and ROIC of 12.3%. By comparison, HOV (Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (Class A)) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $610.6M) and LEGH (Legacy Housing Corporation (TX)) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 16.5x, ROIC 7.4%, cap $688.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, DFH leads on earnings multiple (4.2x) while DFH leads on capital efficiency (15.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SDHC?

Per SDHC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001982518), Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (Class A) generated $971.1M in revenue (-0.4% YoY), $10.7M in net income, and -$36.9M in free cash flow against $557.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SDHC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SDHC last traded at $10.52 (+1.94% on volume of 58,168 shares), positioning the stock -0.94% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.62) and -22.70% below its 200-day simple moving average ($13.61). Across its 52-week range of $9.71 to $23.49, SDHC sits at the 5.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.0% ($9.57 to $11.47).

SDHC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell SDHC stock right now?

Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (Class A) (SDHC) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 44/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 50x P/E (12% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is SDHC's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

SDHC's 12-month base price target is $9.86 (range $7.69 to $24.66), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: SDHC RQD Cockpit SDHC 12M Forecast SDHC Earnings & Move SDHC Dividends & DRIP SDHC Insiders & 13F SDHC Whale Options SDHC Profit Sankey SDHC News & Why