Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / RRGB / options

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Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (RRGB) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$9.33 +3.78% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.38

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (RRGB) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $176.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.38 (+0.49%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 3.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RRGB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY RRGB SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 81% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 59.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.1% FCF Margin ($37.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 12 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$8.61+2.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$8.81-7.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$8.15+14.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$9.33-0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (49) → D+ (57)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the RRGB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, RRGB faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($8.35) or 200D SMA ($5.84) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($9.29) toward Bear Floor ($7.25).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RRGB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “RRGB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 27, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±12.5%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (RRGB)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for RRGB.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RRGB)

✓Walkthrough of RRGB's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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RRGB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +166.57%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $9.31H $9.47L $8.89C $9.33VOL 176.2K

RES: $9.09SUP: $7.78SMA50: $8.35SMA200: $5.84

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RRGB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RRGB Butterfly Map → + Track RRGB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -3.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RRGB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RRGB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RRGB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RRGB)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #485 of 1011 ⚔️ RICK vs RRGB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (RRGB vs. RICK, JACK, PLAY, BDL)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (RRGB) ranks #485 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #709 by equity capitalization ($176.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RICK leads on earnings valuation at 20.0x trailing P/E, while BDL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 8.2% ROIC and — gross margin. BDL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with RRGB at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
RRGB ACTIVE Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc.	D+	57/100	—	—	5.7%	+3.78%	$176.4M	Benchmark Subject
RICK RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc.	D+	55/100	20.0x	—	5.6%	+0.46%	$216.6M	/rick-vs-rrgb →
JACK Jack In The Box Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	-35.0%	+9.40%	$249.9M	/jack-vs-rrgb →
PLAY Dave & Buster's Entertainment Inc.	D-	42/100	—	85.7%	4.3%	+5.45%	$283.2M	/play-vs-rrgb →
BDL Flanigan's Enterprises Inc.	B-	71/100	21.4x	—	8.2%	+7.62%	$107.6M	/bdl-vs-rrgb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-28 • CIK 0001171759

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28), Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (RRGB) reported GAAP revenue of $1.21B (-3.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.25B , and -7.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$23.3M, operating cash flow of $37.0M, and free cash flow of $37.0M (+425.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, RRGB closed FY2025 with $563.5M in total assets against $164.7M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.65, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-28	$1.21B	-$23.3M	$37.0M	$37.0M	$563.5M	$164.7M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-29	$1.25B	-$77.5M	$7.0M	$7.0M	$641.3M	$181.6M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.30B	-$21.2M	-$1.2M	-$1.2M	—	—

3. RRGB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RRGB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (NASDAQ: RRGB) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $9.33 (+3.78% 1D, market cap $176.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, RRGB ranks #485 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RRGB compare to RICK and JACK in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), RRGB carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.7%. By comparison, RICK (RCI Hospitality Holdings Inc.) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 20.0x, ROIC 5.6%, cap $216.6M) and JACK (Jack In The Box Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $249.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, RICK leads on earnings multiple (20.0x) while BDL leads on capital efficiency (8.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RRGB?

Per RRGB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28, CIK 0001171759), Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. generated $1.21B in revenue (-3.1% YoY), -$23.3M in net income, and $37.0M in free cash flow against $563.5M in total assets and $164.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RRGB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RRGB last traded at $9.33 (+3.78% on volume of 245,640 shares), positioning the stock +11.74% above its 50-day simple moving average ($8.35) and +59.76% above its 200-day simple moving average ($5.84). Across its 52-week range of $2.46 to $10.95, RRGB sits at the 80.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($8.16 to $10.50).

RRGB Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is RRGB's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for RRGB.

Direct Sub-Reports: RRGB RQD Cockpit RRGB 12M Forecast RRGB Earnings & Move RRGB Dividends & DRIP RRGB Insiders & 13F RRGB Whale Options RRGB Profit Sankey RRGB News & Why